Navráti sa pomer zlata k striebru na 1:12?

Na základe určitých faktov bol v minulosti pomer striebra a zlata stanovený medzi 12:1 až 15:1. Na začiatku tohto milénia, keď sa začínal býčí trh v sektore PMs, ich pomer bol 80:1. V súčasnosti sa pohybuje okolo 63:1. Takže ak bude striebro v budúcnosti docenené (čo podľa nás určite bude), tak pri zlate US$5000/oz a pomere 1:12 by striebro malo byť niečo nad US$400/oz.

In nature, silver is found at from 12:1 to 15:1 as compared to gold.

That is why silver and gold were priced at that 15:1 ratio by the founding fathers in the Constitution--it was "natural" to do so.

Today the price ratio is 63:1 as you said. It could go to 16:1 or even overshoot to 8:1 due to fact only about 1 billion ounces of silver (of 40 billion mined) is available today for trading.

Almost all the 5 billion ounces of gold are still around--maybe even more, due to tungsten-salting!

So, if gold is right-priced at $1200 then silver is very likely to see $75 and probably $150.

Then when gold hits $5000/oz silver will be right-priced at about $400/oz which represents a 12:1 ratio. This is due to all the silver mined but lost these last 40-50 years to industrial processes.

Few historical facts:

12th century - gold and silver ratio held around 12:1 based on relative abundance found in nature. This held until the 17th century, which shows that the natural market works.

17th century - silver was monetized by edict, Sir Isaac Newton found the appropriate ratio to be 15.5:1. This also held for hundreds of years, until...

1873 - silver was demonetized, leading to much larger ratios and wilder swings. Ratios of 100:1 were seen.

Modern - when the bull market in gold started around 2000, the ratio was about 80:1. It has dropped to about 50:1, but spiked up to 80:1 again during the height of the financial crisis in 2008/9. Since then the ratio has worked its way back down to 58 in September and is around 63 today.

Conclusion:

1) Silver will play a catch-up role as poor man's gold when everyday investors see gold getting too high for them and as systemic financial problems become more readily apparent to them.

2) The amount of silver available for investment is much lower than that of gold.

3) If gold doubles, silver will go up 3X or 4X.

27.11.2009