Zdvojnásobí sa cena striebra?

Ak si vezmeme historický pomer zlata a striebra (15:1), tak cena bieleho kovu by mala v súčasnosti byť na US$81,60/oz. Netvrdíme, že tam okamžite vystúpi, avšak k štyridsiatke sa dostane; a nebudeme musieť až tak dlho čakať.

As a general rule, the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

"The major monetary metal in history is silver, not gold." Milton Friedman, Nobel Laureate

In this author's opinion silver has a few unique twists:

Firstly as a much cheaper precious metal silver is winning market share from gold buyers. The higher gold prices go the more consumers will step down to silver, more so if they think silver's price will rise substantially.

Today the gold:silver ratio stands at 65.94:1

Gold $1224 oz/silver 18.56 oz = 65.94

Historically the ratio has been 15:1

Since silver made it's nominal high in 1984 the gold:silver ratio has held fairly steady at 45:1 - with the current ratio at 65.94:1 either gold will have to fall or silver will have to rise to $27.20 in order to get the numbers back in sync with 45:1.

To get back to the historical average ratio of 15:1 silver would have to rise to $81.60 an oz.

Silver, like gold, also performs it's function as a precious metal - acting as a storehouse of value and a safe haven in times of turmoil - although, and herein might lie the opportunity, silver seems to have been asleep on the job what with the historical gold:silver ratio being so out of whack.

Gold does seem to be performing admirably and in this authors opinion does not seem set to significantly drop in price any time soon, the Dow on gold's terms:

* In 2000 gold made its $260 per ounce low

* January 2000 the Dow was 10,900

* 10,900 / $260 per ounce = 41.9 ounces to buy the Dow

* Today at 10,443 DJII and $1,224 gold it's 8.53 oz to buy the Dow

Secondly silver is an industrial metal/commodity which, unlike gold, is consumed, therefore giving you a call on an economic recovery.

"Silver is a unique metal that wins whether the economy is going well or is in bad shape. In the latter, the investor buys it as a hedge against the downturn in the economy and the markets. And if the economy improves, then the industrial demand increases." Chintan Parikh, CPM Group commodity analyst

The bottom line? Silver gives you a nice double play with prices expected to perform well no matter what the prevailing economic or geopolitical conditions.

Third silver does not have the threat of much publicized Central Bank and IMF sales constantly overhanging it - although silver does seem to trade in lockstep with gold when this old bogey man is trotted out to the herd.

Zdroj: Richard (Rick) Mills, www.aheadoftheherd.com

19.08.2010