Zlato sú peniaze

"Zlato nie je ničím iným než peniazmi" - asi takto to v roku 1913 povedal JP Morgan. Výhodou je to, že sú to medzinárodné peniaze. Aj keď krátkodobo môže skrz manipuláciu cena zlata poklesnúť, následne sa opätovne vráti na vyššie úrovne. Vytiahne ju tam globálna ekonomická situácia a sentiment.

'Gold is money and nothing else' - JP Morgan, testifying to the Pujo Committee, 1913.

Gold's recent breach of the symbolic US$1,000 level has elicited a predictable amount of commentary from mainstream analysts. The problem is, much of it is ill-informed. Due to the general amnesia of most market analysts, of all asset classes gold remains the most misunderstood. In order to comprehend why gold is rising and why it will continue to rise in the years ahead, we need to review some history.

As JP Morgan pointed out early last century, gold is money, and nothing else. Grasp this simple fact and you understand gold. More to the point, gold is international money. It always has been. Over thousands of years of human economic interaction, gold (and silver) evolved as the chosen medium of exchange. These two precious metals contained all the qualities necessary to facilitate growing trade and economic interaction. The most important quality of course was man's inability to create the metals out of nothing. Alchemists tried, but to no avail. This inability to manipulate supply made the metals perfect for the role of money.

Currently, all other nations are trying to inflate their economies equally by issuing huge quantities of government debt. China is no exception. With the yuan linked to the US dollar, the Peoples Bank of China must print money to maintain the link. This is causing asset bubbles to surface again in China. All fiat currencies are equally as bad.

The gold market knows this. Gold is saying that the crisis is not over, that it is in fact getting worse. We are seeing Gresham's Law in action, as bad money pushes out the good. Gold is being swept off the market by millions of individuals who know that without fail governments always ruin the value of their paper money.

Governments have always resented gold because when freely traded, its price tells the story of bureaucratic ineptitude. So don't expect gold to breeze through the psychologically important $1,000 mark. In fact, despite gold's recent rise and the weight of history on its side, a record net 'short' position has been building to the tune of nearly 28 million ounces. Someone is betting very heavily on a price fall.

In the past, large net short positions have presaged big, albeit brief, price declines. Will it happen again? It might, but who really cares? The damage to gold will be short lived and after this crisis fully plays out - and it will - gold will have soared against its paper rivals. More importantly, gold will still be money, and nothing else.

Článok:www.sharecafe.com.au/dreck.asp

17.09.2009