Aký výkon môžu mať komodity v 2008?
Zopár myšlienok a následne aj faktorov, ktoré môžu mať vplyv na výkon komodít v tomto roku.
A recent Barron's article points out that "gold and copper are each down 12% from the all-time highs seen on March 17 and March 6, respectively, while crude has fallen 11% from its March 17 high. London International Financial Futures Exchange sugar and cocoa are off 25% and 21%, respectively, from recent highs, while Chicago Board of Trade wheat has slipped nearly 20% since March 13." Is this the end of the commodity bull run?
Please understand that I'm not trying to predict any long term trends with this piece. I'm only trying to guess the direction of commodity prices over the next year. To provide focus to this discussion, I will consider the following issues:
1. How much have speculators contributed to the recent commodities rally?
2. Will increased volatility lead to more margin calls, further depressing commodity prices?
3. Which factor dominates commodity prices: the weak greenback or increased volatility? Will a greenback rebound knock down commodity prices?
4. If the U.S. enters a recession, can commodity prices continue to move higher?
5. Will supply disruptions continue to support commodity prices?
Summary: Evidence suggests that speculators played a big role in the recent commodity bull run. It seems likely that elevated volatility will continue in 2008, increasing the likelihood of commodity speculators selling long positions to cover margin calls. Some commodity bulls argue it would only take another banking disaster to lead to more Fed rate cuts, triggering dollar weakness and a fresh round of buying in commodities. But this argument isn't convincing, because volatility will increase if we saw another banking disaster, which may increase the likelihood of commodity speculators selling long positions to cover margin calls.
Furthermore, if the next banking disaster occurred in Europe commodities will take a double punch as the dollar strengthens and volatility increases. Major trade weighted dollar weakness could be behind investors, further limiting upside for commodity prices. History suggests that commodity prices will move lower if the U.S. enters a recession, and historical evidence also rejects the notion that emerging market growth will continue to support commodity prices during a U.S. recession. However, supply disruptions may provide some support to commodity prices.
Zdroj: CommodityOnline.com
02.04.2008