Bude 2008 rokom rastu?
Či bude globálny ekonomický rast pokračovať aj budúci rok bude v značnej miere závisieť na „nových hnacích motoroch“, ako Čína, India....
The past few years have been characterised by good times for the world economy. Despite soaring oil prices, growth has been robust and inflation has not been an issue. Thanks to the resurgence of China there is now a new engine of world growth, and the effects of this sea change are being felt in all corners of the globe.
Good times for the mining industry seem set to roll on. Despite the pressure felt by base metal prices in the past few weeks, there will be no return to the bad old days of the 1990s just yet. The fundamental clash between years of underinvestment in producing capacity and extraordinary demand growth hasn’t gone away.
Why must the dollar keep falling? Because though the depreciation of the greenback so far has made a dent in the U.S. trade deficit, the deficit is still running at an unsustainable level. Furthermore, the dollar has yet to fully adjust to the reduced importance of the U.S. in the world economy and the arrival of the new engine I mentioned in this article’s opening paragraph.
Ultimately, the dollar still retains the support, for now, of East Asian governments and of the major oil producers. Until there is a decisive shift in the attitudes of these parties, particularly the former group – who choose to prop up the dollar in order to safeguard U.S. demand for their imports - then the greenback can’t complete the adjustment it needs to make.
But the willingness of overseas governments to fund U.S. borrowing will diminish as the country becomes a smaller part of the global economy, and sooner or later, the big players in the dollar prop-up game will look for something smarter to do with their money. That shift, if it takes place in 2008, won’t just be the story of the year, but of the decade and beyond.
The expectation of this impending rebalancing remains the major driver of the gold market, while the base metals and many other commodities ultimately depend on the health of that new engine, although tough economic times in the U.S. are unhelpful.
The economic tenor of 2008 depends on whether that engine can keep pulling the rest of the world along even while another great engine, the U.S. economy, is spluttering. The need for the dollar to fall further just makes things harder.
Zdroj: commodityonline.com
28.12.2007