Byci komoditny trh v 70tych rokoch
V 70tych rokoch trval byci trh 9 rokov. Historicky priemer je 18-23 rokov.
The global financial markets are in turmoil; crude oil prices are going high and high; and precious metals like gold continue to be the most exciting investment opportunities in the commodities sector.
What makes this commodities bull run, when America is on the brink of a recession, and the global markets are all heated up?
According to Sally Limantour, Editor, Taipan Financial News, when most folks think of a big commodity bull run, their minds turn to the 1970’s.
"They remember OPEC, long gas lines, high silver prices, and the Hunt brothers’ spectacular rise and fall. All told, the 1970s commodity bull market was about 9 years in duration," he says.
"But now let’s go even further back -- and I mean way, way back. If you could get your hands on commodity price charts going back to the 1700’s, you would soon see that nine years is a historically short time frame for a commodity bull. The majority of cycles over the last 200 years have been longer. Looking back at soybean prices, corn, cotton, gold, silver, base metals and so on, the historic evidence suggests that 18 to 23 years is a much better benchmark for how long a commodity bull can last.
So where does that leave us today? For starters, the trend is still young. We are only 8 years into a potential twenty-year cycle.
Furthermore, we’ve got explosive demand growth in the developing world -- newly minted consumers clamoring for all the comforts the West takes for granted.
The key fact to remember is this: we have one billion people hogging two thirds of the world’s available natural resources. Another 5.6 billion people get by on the other third.
Fast-growing, emerging market countries need infrastructure to accommodate all this. It will take massive natural resource commitments to build out the necessary transportation links, power plants, buildings, ports, and so on. The challenge is easy to see: demand is huge and resources are limited. That’s what makes a bull market."
Zdroj: CommodityOnline
17.04.2008