Komodity môžu ako posilniť, tak aj oslabiť
Všetko záleží na dopyte a ponuke. Avšak žiadny pohyb nie je priamočiary. Korekcie sú jeho súčasťou.
To address one thing up front, this time might actually be different. It makes sense to me that the supply and demand equation, especially for industrial and agricultural materials, is evolving, and that the types of prices we saw a year or two ago will never come back. Parabolic price rises though, especially throughout an entire segment of the market, are a sign of excess, and a big drop should not be a shock even if it is now different.
If you truly believe that this time it's different, and we really are just a few years into a two-decade run, then you have to understand that even if the ultimate run exceeds your wildest expectations, it cannot be in a straight line. During the emerging market boom, we have seen a handful of 25% corrections and there will probably be more.
I am not making any sort of prediction in this post nor am I doing any analysis. The point is to understand market behavior and what sentiment can do to prices on the way up and on the way down. The fundamentals of commodities could be unlike any other part of the market, but the behavior of people placing buy orders is not.
Zdroj: MM
11.03.2008