Komodity – prichádza veľký pokles?
Po dosiahnutí rekordných úrovní, poklesne ropa o 30% a kovy o 20-30%? Netvrdíme že nie, avšak dlhodobo ceny vystúpia ešte na vyššie úrovne ako v súčasnosti.
Commodity prices are hitting new highs almost every day but get ready: the big fall is coming soon, writes David Roche, president of Independent Strategy, a London-based investment consultancy, in the Insight column in Tuesday’s FT.
The volume of funds escaping risky assets and their derivatives in recent months has been enough to cause bubble-like euphoria in commodity prices. With global equity market capitalisation almost 10 times the notional value of commodity derivatives, the rush to commodities by investors has been like squeezing a quart into a pint pot.
Chinese demand has been the principal driver of commodity price increases in recent years, accounting for 50-100 per cent of the marginal increase in global demand in a wide range of commodities in the past five years.
But economic overheating will force the authorities in Beijing to tackle domestic inflation pressures just as the country’s main export markets go into a tailspin.
Something is going to have to give. To tackle inflation, China’s monetary policy must be tightened further. And growth will be the fall guy. Already export growth is sliding as global demand drops off.
Where does this leave commodities? Along with slowing global growth, we estimate that a 3 per cent point drop in China’s growth rate, from 11 per cent to 8 per cent, would remove the ex-ante global supply/demand deficit from energy markets and push most industrial metals, including steel and copper, into significant surplus.
On that basis, we can expect the price for refined oil to fall 30 per cent and industrial metals by 20-30 per cent. The big fall is coming.
Zdroj: FT
19.03.2008