Komodity zostávajú na muške investorov
Ani komodity sa nevyhnú vysokej volatilite v ekonomických turbulentných časoch.
Commodities have not been immune to the nerve-rattling gyrations in world financial markets as investors brace for more meltdowns on Wall Street and wonder if the Federal Reserve can restore confidence.
With energy, metals and grains futures plunging this week from their recent historic highs, many are asking if the long bull run in commodities is finally over.
The short answer is, commodities may be down for now, but don't count them out. Analysts point out that commodities tend to be volatile by nature, and that they have too many fundamental factors going for them to stay down for long.
Analysts said the long-term outlook for shortages in key commodities will continue to buoy prices, even though profit taking by hot-money hedge funds is taking the froth off markets from crude oil and gold to corn, soybeans and wheat.
"We had a bit of a correction -- but it's to be expected given the magnitude of the advance and the volatility of the markets," said Bill O'Neill, managing partner of Logic Advisors LLC and former commodities research head for Merrill Lynch.
"The long-term growth patterns set up extremely well for commodities -- looking a year, two or three years forward. These are long-term, demand-based rallies," O'Neill said.
So speculators are nervous and, perhaps, a bit strained. But analysts say their love affair with commodities should resume when the dust settles from Wall Street's tremors.
China's breakneck economic expansion is another prime reason why oil, metals and grain prices are so high. With $1.6 trillion in currency reserves at end-January, China has plenty of reserve to import cheap commodities to fuel domestic growth, modernization and food needs, keeping inflation under control as Beijing pushes to create 10 million new jobs a year.
Zdroj: MM
02.04.2008