Meniaci sa svet je výhodný pre komodity
Vstupujem do éry, v ktorej India a Čína budú asi dôležitejšie ako USA. A tamto treba smerovať aj investície.
Commodity prices have enjoyed a prolonged bull-market over the last seven years. The primary reason for this has been the rapid and sustained demand-growth from emerging market economies such as China and India, coupled with supply-side constraints caused by under-investment by the mining industry in previous decades, a lack of equipment and expertise, delays in bringing on new production, rising costs and ageing infrastructure.
So until the market returns to balance, either due to a fall in demand or a significant increase in supply, prices are likely to remain at elevated levels.
In 2008, unlike previous years, the American economy appears weak and it is still uncertain how this will affect the growth of economies such as China. The concern is, given the US is an important market for Chinese exports, a weaker US could hit Chinese economic growth and, in turn, demand for commodities. As the largest consumer of industrial commodities, any slowing in consumption could seriously impact commodity prices. However, we believe this impact will not be as severe as the market thinks and we expect demand for commodities to remain strong in 2008.
This is the dilemma facing investors: have the last seven years been due to a normal, if slightly extended, commodity cycle and we shall return to a 20th-century world where America's influence over the global economy remains key?
Or have we entered an era where the US is no longer so important and China and India are becoming the new world powers. We are putting our money on the latter scenario; history seldom runs backwards.
Zdroj:yzoo.co.uk
07.03.2008