Čína – globálny líder v spotrebe komodít

Čína vydá viac finančných protriedkov na stavbu železničnej siete v nasledujúcich 5 rokoch než zbytok sveta vynaložil za posledných 20 rokov.

For the first four months of 2006, new construction expenditure in China was 40 percent higher year on year, driven by increased infrastructure development for the Beijing Olympics in 2008, Shanghai's World Expo in 2010, and continued high rates of rural to urban migration.


China will spend more on underground and overland rail networks in the next five years than the rest of the world has spent in the last 20 years! (Credit Suisse, Brave New World II, Nov 2006)


These new railways will include: six railways for passenger transportation, a major one being the rail connecting Beijing to Shanghai; five inter-city railways, including one between Beijing and Tianjin; and the upgrading of five existing railways such as the one between Datong and Qinhuangdao.


There are planned upgrades to twelve seaports, including those in Dalian, Tianjin and Shanghai in order to receive raw materials such as coal, imported oil, gas and iron ore. Port construction along inland rivers and canals is expected to accelerate with continued dredging of the Yangtze, Pearl River and the Beijing-Hangzou Canal.


Ten airports will be expanded upon to accommodate for increased air traffic, including those in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou. Those in Kunming and Hefei will be relocated.


With nearly 100 Chinese cities housing more than one million people and increasing numbers of Chinese moving into urban centres in search of employment, the associated requirements for housing and metro infrastructure projects such as public transit, water and wastewater infrastructure, power transmission, and roads is expected to continue to place pressure on global raw material supplies.


Global Commodities and China

China is the global leader in consumption of aluminium, coal, copper, gold, lead, nickel, tin, and zinc.

Import komodít

China was an oil exporter during the 70's and 80's. As recently as 1992, China was self-sufficient in oil. Presently, the world's most-populous country is importing 40 percent of its needs. Oil makes up only 23 per cent of the country's total energy consumption, far less than coal, which accounted for 68 per cent. The U.S. Department of Energy predicts the reliance of China on foreign oil to reach 75 percent by 2025. China is now the second largest oil consumer behind the United States, having recently surpassed Japan.


China is currently the sixth largest oil producer but recent statistics from BP's Review of World Energy 2005 show reserves will only sustain the country for a further thirteen years if current production levels are maintained.

Spotreba ropy

Growth in Chinese oil consumption has accelerated mainly because of a large-scale transition away from bicycles and mass transit toward private automobiles, made more affordable since China's admission to the World Trade Organization.


The number of privately owned automobiles in China is now 23 million, more than double the figure three years ago. By year 2010, China is expected to have 90 times more cars than in 1990. Some projections predict that China could surpass the total number of cars in the U.S. by 2030.

Produkcia áut

According to the Organisation Internationale des Constructeurs D'Automobiles (OICA), China was the fourth largest producer of automobiles in 2005. China is expected to easily surpass Germany in 2006. For the first four months of 2006, China produced 2.6 million motor vehicles, 32 per cent more than in the corresponding period of 2005. Low labour costs and greater access to China's growing market for motor vehicles have encouraged manufacturers such as Ford and General Motors to relocate more production capacity to China.


Over the next five years, China is set to create fourteen new expressways, including one connecting Beijing to Hong Kong and Macao.


Conclusion

China has had a significant impact on commodity supplies and subsequent price. Some of that demand may be attributed to 'displaced demand' in the sense that a consumer good produced in China consumes the same amount of material as it would if produced in the US. However, the development of an emerging Chinese middle class and a mass migration, perhaps the most significant one in modern history, of millions of Chinese from rural to urban areas of the country will result in a fundamental structural change in the Chinese economy.


On the global stage, China's policy of non-involvement in sovereign nations has enabled its state-owned companies to seek out trading agreements with those countries of the world considered unsavoury to the US and Europe. China's position as a founding member on the UN Security Council and subsequent veto power has been instrumental in China building diplomatic and economic relationship with 'rogue' nations. China can be expected to bear continued pressure from the international community as it seeks to secure raw materials from any source for its fast-growing economy.


Source: GoldE

10.02.2007

"The world is governed by self interest only. ." Johann Friedrich Von Schiller