Neľahké obdobie ešte len príde!
V roku 2008 môžu mať ecofin turbulencie na svetovú ekonomiku len mierne negatívne dopady, avšak väčšie problémy sa pravdepodobne prejavia od roku 2009.
The reason this crunch will be so much worse, he said, is that the chunk of the economy which is shuddering to a halt - homebuilding and housing dependent consumption - is six times bigger than the spending on IT, which triggered the last one.
"The magnitude dwarfs anything we saw seven years ago."
The endgame, he said, is an "average recession" meaning just over a year's worth of economic shrinking - three times the depth of the recession seven years ago.
While Roach's views are now close to those of the majority, they are not shared by everyone. Nigel Doughty, of Doughty Hanson, for instance, suspects many of the Davos crowd have become overly pessimistic this year.
"I think everyone is being too gloomy about 2008," he said. "This year could be a lot better than many expect for both the US and the UK. I suspect 2009 is the year to be more worried about."
Much depends on the reaction of policymakers, who are already considering imposing new regulations on banks, whose use of sophisticated financial products contributed to the crisis.
Roach added: "There will be sand put in the gears of financial market innovation. Some of it will be justified but it will go too far. It's a significant risk."
Zdroj: MM
01.02.2008