Pozitívne vyhliadky pre komodity
Aj napriek spomaľovaniu US ekonomiky zostáva Barclays Capital pozitívne naladený čo sa týka budúceho výkonu komodít.
Even with no shortage of indicators suggesting the US economy is slowing there has not been any acompanying slowdown in commodity prices, Barclays Capital noting supply side concerns have contributed to price strength and driven gold, platinum, oil and soybean prices to all-time highs last week.
With grain prices also stronger Barclays suggests the implication is investors are not convinced a slowing in global growth will translate into lower commodity prices thanks to the structural shifts of the past couple of years. These shifts have seen developing nations contributing to commodity demand growth at the same time as supply constraints are increasing, the recent price gains suggesting these are becoming a bigger issue than slower global economic growth.
The South African power supply issues are similarly positive for precious metal prices as production is likely to be impacted for some time, with platinum the most at risk to lost output. Similar supply side interupptions should also prove supportive for gold prices in the group's view, especially as investment demand remains solid even at higher prices.
Risk appears to the upside across the agricultural sector as well in the group's view thanks to low inventories and increasing demand not only from the food sector but also from the energy sector as buyers look for alternative sources for fuel.
Barclays expects corn prices to move higher given this scenario, while lower production also puts something of a floor under soybean prices. Wheat prices have gained from poor weather conditions and this trend appears likely to continue, the experts believe, while reduced growing acreage in the US and stronger demand from China is expected to support the cotton price.
Zdroj:www.sharecafe.com.au
29.02.2008