Vytvorila sa komoditna bublina?
Komodity vraj mozu poklesnut az o 30%. Za rastom cien bol viac spekulativny kapital ako realny globalny dopyt.
A story by Gene Epstein in Barron's this weekend warns that commodity prices could fall by at least 30% and as much as 50%. Epstein's article highlights what he believes to be the influence of index funds on commodity prices. He goes on to list a number of factors which a handful of analysts argue will result in much lower commodity prices this year.
"By one estimate," Epstein writes, "index funds now account for 40% of bullish bets on commodities. The speculative juices are even more plentiful-nearly 60% of bullish positions-if you count the bets placed by traditional commodity 'pools'."
The argument that there is a bubble in commodities prices is not a new one. It is based on the hard evidence the index funds which track commodity prices account for some US$200 billion in bullish positions on the commodities options and futures markets. While the funds have given retail investors a simple way to go "long" resources, Epstein argues that the "smart money," the commercial traders and producers themselves, are betting for a fall in prices.
The position outlined in the Barron's article claims that the rise in commodity prices owes more to speculation than Chinese demand growth-at least since September of last year. According to Epstein, analyst Steve Briese's, "Analysis of commercial hedger positions leads him to believe that commodities in general were fully valued in terms of the fundamentals as of early September 2007. Based on the 24-commodity S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index, that would mean about a 30% collapse from present levels."
Other factors which could lead to falling commodity prices, according to Epstein: a rally in the U.S. dollar (reducing demand for dollar-denominated commodities), a non-recession in the U.S. economy (leading to a rotation out of resource shares back into other stocks), less buying by the index funds as falling gold and oil prices lead to a reallocation of institutional money, and a fall in Chinese demand.
Zdroj: CommodityOnline.com
08.04.2008