Vznika komoditna bublina?
Dlhodobo su vyhliadky pre komodity stale pozitivne. Kratkodobo sa korekcie nevylucuju. A tie mozu byt velmi sokujuce!
When these investors decide it's safer to return to their traditional havens and too dangerous to keep so much capital tied up in metals, grains or oil, it could take a lot of heat out of the market. Which helps explain why the producers who actually deal in the physical stuff on a daily basis are making fat bets on future price declines, boosting their net short positions to record levels.
Citigroup's estimable chief equity strategist, Tobias Levkovich, recently warned clients that "a number of catalysts may be coming together to end the current commodities craze."
Is he right? To find out we went to Bill O'Neill, who has spent years monitoring the complicated world of commodities and who is known for avoiding the hyperbole of either the market boosters or the naysayers. "A lot of people are trying to compare this to the Nasdaq bubble [of 2000]. This is really quite different," says Mr. O'Neill, co-founder of a New Jersey outfit called LOGIC Advisors.
He doesn't dismiss the influence of heavy speculation on prices. But unlike most Internet stocks that blew up, "we are dealing with markets that have very solid supply-demand fundamentals."
In the past couple of weeks, some of the hot money has shifted out of oil, gold and other commodity plays, but it doesn't signal the start of the stampede, he insists.
"What we've seen here is a needed and inevitable consolidation. Every market, when it gets overspeculated, usually has some pretty healthy corrections. It could carry somewhat further. I don't know that I would be aggressively buying some of these markets now."
But he suggests that when I call him six months from now, gold and oil will have both surpassed their recent highs and most other key commodities should still be doing just fine.
"Putting things in a very big picture, I think we're in a long-term cycle," says Mr. O'Neill, who spent two decades as Merrill Lynch's chief commodities watcher, before the firm decided six years ago to get out of the business and concentrate on sure things like asset-backed securities. "There will be times, of course, when there's some weakness, as with any market. But the basic trend here looking out over the next 10 years is inevitably higher."
Mr. O'Neill also expects that the heavy speculation will spark further volatility. Which means any price corrections could be extremely nasty, regardless of the long-term outlook.
Meanwhile, he recommends keeping close tabs on the greenback, whose slumping value has been a key factor in boosting global prices.
"If there was evidence that the U.S. dollar is about to have a major rally, that could put commodities on the defensive for six months to a year
Zdroj: GlobandMail
10.04.2008