Blíži sa energetická kríza? - I

Najvýkonnejšie globálne ropné vrty majú obdobie maximálnej produkcie už za sebou. Pokiaľ sa nenájdu nové alternatívne zdroje energie, event. nezníži sa naša závislosť na rope, kríza v r. 1970 oproti približujúcemu šoku bude vyzerať ako piknik…

Let’s face it, our planet is facing an energy crisis. If nothing is done to reduce our dependence on crude oil and if the human race is unable to find a viable alternative source of energy, the 1970’s oil-shocks will look like a picnic! Most people remain oblivious to the fact that the supply of oil is struggling to keep up with rising global demand. And when you factor in the reality that over 60% of the world’s top oil-producing nations are already past their peak output, the picture starts to cause some alarm. Now, I am not saying that our world is going to run out of oil tomorrow. Far from it! However, the rate at which we pump this stuff out from the ground is likely to enter an irreversible decline.

When painting a rosy outlook for the world’s energy situation, the governments always like to talk about the huge amounts of oil reserves supposedly present in the Middle-East. Whether these “reserves” are there at all or if they have been over-stated, is highly debatable. However, what the officials forget is that reserves are not worth much if they cannot deliver oil fast enough. For example, I may claim that I have discovered a trillion barrels of oil under my backyard, but how helpful is this reserve in solving the world’s energy problem if it only produces say a hundred thousand barrels of oil per day? In a world where the global demand for oil is running at 84.5 million barrels per day and supply is extremely tight, rather than taking comfort from the Middle-Eastern oil-reserves, we must focus on the amount of oil that we can actually bring to the market.

´Globálny dopyt a ponuka

Moreover, in order to grasp the world’s oil supply dynamics, it is crucial to understand that every oil-field or oil-province on the planet is governed by the laws of geology. In other words, once you have extracted more than 50% of the oil present in any given field, the rate of production peaks and thereafter enters a decline. This is what geologists refer to as “Peak Oil”. Now, some would argue that this is a conspiracy, but a quick look at some historical data proves that “peak oil” is a reality; an inconvenient truth!

There can be no disputing the fact that the United States’ oil production peaked in the early 1970’s and today its output is roughly 50% below its record-high. In other words, despite all the amazing technology at its disposal, the world’s most “developed” nation, has failed to ramp up its oil-production and now imports roughly 65% of its oil. So, if “Peak Oil” is indeed a myth or a conspiracy and if new forms of technology will surely help us find and produce an unlimited quantity of oil, why then, has the most technologically advanced nation failed in this “easy and simple” task? Simply, it does not exist.

Next, let us turn to Saudi Arabia. It is interesting to note that despite their highly- advertised reserves of 270 billion barrels, Saudi oil production has in fact fallen since 2004 and is still below the record-output achieved in 1981. It is not as if the Saudis do not have an incentive to produce oil when it is trading above $60 per barrel. So, you have to wonder why the Saudi’s have failed to maintain let alone increase their oil production.

It is no secret that all of the “super-giant” oil-fields in Saudi Arabia were discovered several decades ago and are very mature. Some geologists claim that these oil-fields are now in a permanent state of decline and the national oil company (Saudi Aramco) is taking desperate measures (injecting massive quantities of water) in order to maintain the pressure in their oil-fields. If this assessment proves to be correct, we are in trouble.

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Source: GoldS