ROPA - $150 v 2008?
Sú takéto predpovede reálne? Podľa nášho odhadu strop v roku 2008 nastane asi pri $104/bl.
In 2008, we're going to hit an important milestone. In the New Year the world is going to start using oil at a rate of more than 1,000 barrels PER SECOND!
According to the International Energy Agency, global oil demand will average 87.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2008, up from 85.7 million bpd in 2007. At 87.8 million bpd, we'll use 1,016 barrels per second — a sonic boom of energy use.
I also think 2008 is going to be the year we finally see triple-digit oil prices. More on that in a moment.
Here are some facts that will keep you awake at night .
1. America is the world's largest consumer of oil, guzzling more than 7.5 billion barrels per year. We import more than half the oil we use, and that amount is rising.
2. More than 81% of the world's discovered and useable oil reserves come from just 10 countries. And 30% of the world's oil is in three of those countries — Iraq, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.
3. The world consumes an astonishing 173 billion barrels of oil every 2.4 years. At the same time, we find enough new oil to supply just 3% of that.
So, just to keep prices stable over the next decade, we're going to have to find a couple more fields the size of Ghawar — the biggest oil field in Saudi Arabia ... and the world.
As a result, the International Energy Agency (IEA) projects in its Medium Term Oil Market Report that global oil demand will grow 2.2% a year, on average. By 2012, demand should reach 95.8 million barrels per day (bpd) vs. 85.7 million bpd this year.
My Forecast: We Could See Oil Hit $150 a Barrel in 2008
The Energy Information Administration recently told the U.S. Senate that crude should average $85 per barrel in 2008 as fundamentals tighten .
Goldman Sachs said it could hit $105.
But I'm setting my sights a little higher: I think we could see prices spike to $150 a barrel next year! That kind of a jump might not stick around very long. But as I just showed you, all the fundamentals are in place for oil to hit — and maintain — triple-digit prices next year.
In fact, I believe the only thing that could derail higher prices is a stiff recession in the U.S. And central banks around the world are working hard to prevent that.
Zdroj: MM
03.01.2008