GBP vs USD– technický pohľad

Rastúci trend bol prerušený a GBP nastúpil cestu korekcie. Tento pohyb sa dal predpokladať, nakoľko bola zaznamenaná negatívna divergencia. Nové maximum dosiahnuté koncom minulého roku nebolo potvrdené RSI.

Prvá podpora nastane pri úrovni 1,93, avšak je možné, že pokles dosiahne až hlavnej podpornej úrovne okolo 1,90.

Look at the fundamentals:

• In the fourth quarter, U.K. house prices fell 0.8% — the first time this has happened since 2000.

• Retail sales rose only 0.3% in December, smack in the middle of the holiday season. That's the slowest pace in 21 months.

• Core prices in the U.K. are at the lowest level in 13 months — wiping away the Bank of England's need to fight inflation.

• The savings ratio among Britons has dropped below zero for the first time since the late 1980s and household debt service makes up a whopping 14% of incomes.

It's obvious the U.K.'s central bank is starting to face the same demands that pushed the Federal Reserve to begin its series of interest rate cuts. What matters now is how soon the BOE succumbs to evidence of a weakening U.K. economy.

The natives are going to get more and more restless if interest rate cuts remain on hold. And you can bet they'll display their frustrations by selling the heck out of the pound!

Zdroj: G-Vision

14.01.2008