Ktoré meny môžu profitovať zo silnejšieho dolára

While Westpac suggests the US dollar is likely to weaken further over the next 6-12 months (see "Westpac Still Sees AUD At Parity With USD", FYI, 7/5/08) Danske Bank takes the view the multi-year downtrend against the euro may in fact be coming to an end.

If this proves to be the case there are implications for emerging market currencies, as the bank notes some of these currencies are inclined to follow the lead of the greenback while others tend to move in the opposite direction.

Geographically the split is roughly along the lines of the eastern European currencies following the euro, meaning currencies such as the Polish zloty and the Czech koruna may be set for a period of underperformance if the bank is right in its view the US dollar will gain on the euro.

Conversely Asian and Latin American currencies and some other emerging markets tend to follow the US dollar, so outperformance relative to the euro can be expected for currencies such as the Chinese renminbi, the Russian rouble and currencies in the Gulf region.

článok:www.sharecafe.com.au/fnarena_news.asp

12.05.2008