Papierové peniaze strácajú, zlato získava
Historické fakty potvrdzujú, že všetky papierové peniaze na hodnote strácali. Zlato si ju udržiavalo.
All paper money has historically proved defective in terms of one of the classic functions of money.
This established the rule, on which the historic gold standard was based, that convertibility is the test of value. A non-convertible paper money can be expected to depreciate over time, more or less rapidly. In the twentieth century, the great majority of non-convertible paper currencies depreciated by more than 90 per cent in purchasing power, and money depreciated to zero.
One should not expect too much precision in these series of price indices, but the evidence is conclusive that gold tends to return to a constant purchasing power, hence Jastrom's phrase "the Golden Constant", while paper currencies tend to go to zero.
The gold standard, and indeed the principle of stable money, had two great enemies. They were, and are, war and democracy.
One cannot expect gold to take the place of the dollar in Asian reserves; there are too many dollars already in existence, and too little gold. Yet the surplus that exists of the Western currencies makes gold a very attractive alternative, particularly as Asia has always had a preference for the precious metals. Gold has its niche.
The supply position of gold is favourable to further rises in the gold price. Despite the rise in the price that has taken place already, there is no sign on the production side of the creation of excess supply, though of course, stocks are high relative to industrial and jewellery outtake. Because it acts as a reserve currency, gold stocks are always large.
The same, in my view, is likely to be true of the price of gold. The great democracies of the West will find it difficult to make the sacrifices necessary to deal with the growing shortage of fundamental sources of energy, including oil, gas and uranium. The excessive levels of debt are likely at some point to lead to inflation - which wipes out the real value of debt. In these conditions, the underlying economic pressures are for a still higher gold price. In the last decade, the gold price has been doubling every five or six years. My own guess would be that gold will hit $2,000 an ounce in the early 2020s, but some analysts think that will happen much earlier.
Zdroj: www.sharecafe.com.au
21.01.2008