STRIEBRO – cena v roku 2007 porastie

V roku 2006 investori kúpili 60 mil. uncí striebra a tohto roku sa očakáva okolo 74 mil. Táto skutočnosť by mohla mať pozitívny vplyv na cenu striebra.

The long-awaited return of investors to the silver market helped push prices up 40% in 2006 and could send them soaring back to levels not seen since 1980, according to new research.


"The significance of this transition cannot be overemphasized," the CPM Group says in its new book, The CPM Silver Yearbook 2007, which was released Monday in New York.


Investors snapped up more than 60 million ounces of the metal last year after having sold holdings every year since 1991, the report says. And they are expected to buy even more of the metal in 2007, about 74 million ounces.


Such action is likely to push the metal's price into the $17-to-$20-an-ounce range, according to Jeff Christian, one of the report's authors and managing director of New York-based CPM Group.


That price range compares with recent benchmark prices of $13.24 an ounce in New York, but it's still well below the all-time high of $48.70 reached in 1980. Christian acknowledges that it's tricky to predict silver prices and says they could easily overshoot his range.


During the year, the ETF stockpiled 121 million ounces of the metal; this suggests that Christian's estimate of investor buying is low.


But he points to the sale of 100 million ounces by Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating) during the year. The combination of the two events strongly suggests silver purchases of 40 million ounces by the rest of the world, a fairly reasonable assumption, he says.


Overall, noninvestment demand for the metal fell almost 12% to about 715 million ounces last year and is expected to ease 1% more in 2007. Consumption of the metal by jewelry and silverware makers, which represents the biggest portion of fabrication demand, fell 16% in 2006 but likely will remain steady this year. Use of the metal for photography fell and is expected to continue its drop in importance in that industry through 2007.


The supply of the metal is expected to rise a modest 0.5% in the year to 779 million ounces, after staying fairly steady last year. Modest growth in mined production and recovery from scrapped items will be offset by reductions in government sales in 2007.


Source: GoldS

16.05.2007

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