STRIEBRO – prílev peňazí do ETF pokračuje
Je len otázkou času, kedy prílev peňazí a systematické nákup budú mať pozitívny vplyv na cenu striebra.
New data suggest that a silent investment run may be developing in silver, by deep-pocket institutional investors. Statistics from the US publicly traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) suggest a disproportionate amount of buying in the silver ETF (SLV) relative to buying in the gold ETFs (GLD and IAU).
We are nearing the one-year anniversary of the silver ETF. In that time, 136 million ounces of silver, worth almost $2 billion, have been purchased by the trust. Certainly this is much more silver than any observer predicted, including me. Currently, there are almost 17.5 million ounces, worth $12 billion, in the combined GLD and IAU ETFs. (I am limiting my comparisons to the US ETFs to reduce the variables. Although there are other gold ETFs oversees, the two US versions hold 90%+ of total gold ETF assets).
Therefore, the dollar amount of gold in the combined ETFs is only a little over 6 times the dollar amount of silver held in the (lone) silver ETF. I say "only" because there is 250 times more gold, in dollar terms, than silver in total above ground totals. One would think there would be much more money in the gold ETFs than just 6 times what is in the silver ETF. And if you normalize for the shorter time of existence for the silver ETF compared to the gold ETFs, the comparisons are more dramatic.
One year after the introduction of the big gold ETF, GLD (Nov 2004 to Nov 2005), and including the IAU (Jan 2005 to Nov 2005), these two gold ETFs held a combined 7.7 million ounces of gold, then worth $3.8 billion. Therefore, at the one year anniversary of the respective silver and gold ETFs, there was only 2 times as much gold, in terms of dollar amount, than there was in the silver ETF.
My conclusion from this data is that a disproportionate amount of institutional buying has taken place in the silver ETF relative to the buying in the gold ETFs. Two possible explanations come to mind to account for this disproportionate silver buying. One, some well-informed institutional investors have decided to establish a disciplined position in silver. I use "disciplined" because the buying has been systematic and even. The second explanation has to do with pure index-fund type buying to achieve the proper weightings of silver in the popular commodity indices. This type of buying is also even and systematic. Either explanation would fit with a silent developing "run" on silver by deep pockets.
The buying in the silver ETF, even as disproportionately large as it is compared to gold, does not have the feel of "hot" institutional money. The big "mo-mo" (momentum) hedge fund buying that chases price performance has yet to appear in silver. I think it’s a safe bet to say that it will arrive some day.
The important point is that big institutional money is flowing into silver on a disproportionate basis, as the statistics indicate. It is only a matter of time before this buying causes a disproportionate impact on the price of silver. For me, it’s never been a case of gold not being a good investment, but a case of silver being far superior. If you fit the profile of someone who can take advantage of this opportunity, please don’t let it pass by. Don’t wait for the mo-mo guys to buy first.
Source: GoldS
02.05.2007
