Globálne je 441 jadrových reaktorov v prevádzke

K 441 je potrebné pripočítať ďalších 130 jadrových elektrární, ktoré sa buď už budujú, alebo sú v plánovacom štádiu. Súčasná globálna spotreba uránu je asi 176 mil. lb a v roku 2015 je odhad 212 mil. lb. Ťažba uránu zaostáva asi 40% za dopytom. Urán pri cene $72/lb je stále ešte lacný.

There are 441 operational nuclear power reactors around the world today, with the IAEA reporting that 130 new nuclear power plants are either being built or are in the planning stages. These are conservative estimates, with the actual number of new plants likely to be much higher.


China plans to build two new nuclear reactors every year for the next 14 years, which would more than triple their annual uranium demand from 3 million pounds currently to over 10 million pounds by 2010. India has also stated its intention to ramp up nuclear capacity, which will double their demand for uranium from 1 million pounds currently to 2 million pounds in 2010 and 4 million pounds by 2020. We can also add Russia and the United States to the list of countries committed to nuclear energy and needing to secure massive amounts of uranium to keep up with increasing energy demands.


But there is one tiny problem with this increased interest in nuclear power — demand for uranium is already outstripping supply. Total global uranium consumption is currently estimated at 176 million pounds, with less than half of that amount being supplied from uranium mining companies. In other words, new mine supplies are already running about 40% behind demand. That means the majority of demand is being met from inventories that are rapidly depleting. With demand estimates at 212 million pounds per year by 2015, it is clear that there will be severe uranium shortages for at least the next decade. Which of course means much higher prices for uranium and even greater increases in the stock prices of quality uranium miners.


Uranium is still cheap by any measure, including: what the market is willing (and able) to pay, prior highs and supply/demand ratios. Speaking of prior highs, in inflation adjusted terms, the price of uranium has been as much as 70% higher than it is today, a price level we see being taken out in this cycle. During this second phase of the cycle, the uranium price is headed to $100, then $200.

Source: I-Hub

29.01.2007

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