Potasium
Investovanie do málo známych oblastí ponúka stále veľký potenciál pre zisky. Jednou z nich je asi aj potasium v minerálovej forme.
My friend was once talking about potash, the mineral form of potassium. He is a contrarian, but investing in potash seemed crazy even for him. Potash mining isn't exactly on the forefront of resource investing right now. Why would a gold bug like him be messing around with an obscure component of fertilizer? But my friend laid out a compelling investment argument...
Over the last two years, the price of soft wheat rose 163%, hard wheat rose 130%, corn rose 134%, barley rose 78%, soybeans rose 122%, and milling oats are up 56%. Not long into the New Year, corn futures maxed out the daily allowable rise at the Chicago Board of Trade. As you probably know, the ethanol boom created a corn boom, too.
Naturally, these soaring agriculture prices have spurred a boom in fertilizer demand... and this is where potash comes in...
Growing crops requires three key nutrients – nitrogen, phosphorous, and potassium (collectively known as NPK). You can call them "the green monopoly" because the three nutrients are absolutes: Without them, you can't grow crops, and there are no substitutes.
Potassium is the scarcest of the three essential nutrients for agriculture. It commonly occurs in the brine deposits of ancient seas or salt lakes. When these water bodies dried up and were buried, they left behind thick deposits of mineral salts like sodium chloride, gypsum (calcium sulphate), and potassium.
As a mining investor, I'm interested in all this detail because – like gold, uranium, and copper – potassium must be mined... and the activity taking place in potassium is likely the greatest mining boom you've never heard of.
Led by China, India, and Brazil, the emerging economies of the world are consuming more and more grain, which is driving up fertilizer prices. In 2004, a metric ton of potash sold for $200. By 2006, that price rose to $290 per ton. According to Belarusian Potash, which controls 30% of the world's fertilizer market, today that ton sells for $450 and will rise to $500 by March 2008.
A new crop of junior potash companies is exploring all over the world: Iran, Congo, Thailand, and Russia. Unfortunately, most of these companies carry excessive political risks and lack transparency – not ideal for potential investments.
Instead, I'm interested in buying small exploration outfits focused on finding potash deposits for biggies like Potash Corp. Just as the majors are gobbling up promising gold deposits, I expect fertilizer deposits to become highly coveted assets over the next decade.
Yes, the world is "hot for pot"... and as 3 billion Asians put more strain on the world's agriculture supply, it's going to get a lot hotter
Zdroj: MM
29.02.2008
