STRIEBRO – akcie ťažobných firiem s optimizmom
Vzhľadom na pretrvávajúci deficit v dopyte vs ponuka, môže mať tento sektor v nasledujúcich rokoch na akciových trhoch jeden z najlepších, ak nie najlepší výkon.
But, understanding the risks, silver stocks could provide some of the best, if not the very best, returns in the years ahead. There are several reasons for this, but the main one is the ongoing silver supply/demand equation.
At first glance, one of the more remarkable aspects about the silver bear market was that, beginning in 1990, it occurred against the backdrop of a supply deficit. In those years when the global economy could be considered in a positive light, annual silver deficits ran as high as 200 million ounces. When the economy was in recession, the silver shortfall still came in at 40-50 million ounces.
Depending on who you talk to, 2006 was considered a year of recovery and moderate growth. Overall silver supply was up slightly to 646.1 million ounces. Demand, which was down approximately 1% reached 840.5 million ounces. There is still a large gap of nearly 200 million ounces between the production and demand of silver. In 2006 the supply of silver from above ground storage amounted to 194.4 million ounces to make up for the mine supply shortfalls.
For a brief period back in 1997-98, it looked as if the supply/demand imbalance had finally caught the attention of the market when Warren Buffet purchased 129.7 million ounces. Prices moved all the way to the $7.50 level before institutional short sellers and forward selling by base metals producers beat the price back to the $4 range. Once again, silver could get no respect.
Zdroj: InvestorPopeye
17.12.2007
