STRIEBRO - opätovne nákupná úroveň?

Vzhľadom na obvykle slabý výkon striebra počas letných mesiacov sa znova naskytá dobrá možnosť nákupu fyzického striebra (event. ETF) a akcií ťažobných firiem. Pri striebre je dôležité sledovať úroveň $11,50.

Now is the time to buy more gold and silver if you have not yet done so. This article will be short and to the point as I am using a slow dial up internet connection in northern Pakistan (which is quite safe for travel, even or Americans, and has amazing mountains in every direction). I recommended on July 2 to buy silver and gold at those levels with a possible short term rally and possible other buying opportunity between the end of Aug and Oct. The other buying opportunity is here right now.


As global equities, commodities, and other assets sold off in reaction to the sub-prime bond fund debacle, gold and silver were pulled down with them. Traders needed to raise cash to make margin calls and the good was sold along with the bad. On August 16, gold dropped over $20 and silver was hit especially hard, getting knocked down over $1 to around the 11.50 level. Gold and silver seem to have found support now. Silver is at an RSI of 32.32 and gold at 46.18. On August 14, a few days before the large sell off, the Commitments of Traders report showed the commercial traders net short 46,432 silver contracts and the non-commercials net long 26,947 silver contracts. These are low numbers which should be even more favorable now that a large sell off has taken place.


Based on the RSI, commercial traders’ net short position, and summer seasonal weakness that I expected, silver is a strong buy right now. Gold is also good at these levels, and should be considered for your portfolio to protect against financial uncertainty. I am fully invested in bullion and buying more shares of quality mining stocks now. With the US housing correction showing no signs of ending, the full affects of the sub-prime lending fiasco still unknown, and many foreign equities markets still overbought, it is likely that there is some pain yet to be felt in the markets. Gold should protect you long term when the financial markets suffer inevitable shocks.


Silver is showing fairly high inventories on the COMEX of 134+ million ounces and the SLV silver ETF is showing 141+ million ounces in assets. These numbers would indicate that a supply crunch for silver is not imminent. One must also consider that silver is seen as more of an industrial, rather than precious metal. If the US falls into a recession this fall or winter of 2008, silver demand could be depressed and may have trouble gaining in price. Nevertheless, we are living in a very inflationary environment, as anyone buying food can tell you, and the US government seems to be printing money as if it grows on trees. This is good for gold and should be good for silver as well.


Now is the time to buy silver and gold. It is possible we could see lower prices but the risk now is low. Watch for silver support at $11.50 and gold at $650. Closes below these levels for more than a few trading days would be negative short term. The markets could be volatile in the next few weeks so I would not recommend using too much leverage. I do expect for bigger gains in the fourth quarter of this year and into the first quarter of 2008.


Source: SilverS

21.08.2007

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