STRIEBRO – stále dobrá investícia? (2)
Pokrač. : ďalšie faktory, ktoré treba vziať do úvahy pri porovnávaní súčasnosti s rokom 1980...
4. The last time we were at current prices, in 1980, the move to dishoarding had begun. In addition to the great silver melt, net investment selling, reinforced by a long-term decline in prices, took hold. This investment ice age would last in silver for almost 20 years. It was a commonly observed fact of life that silver was the absolute worst performing investment asset of all for two decades.
In addition to a rebirth of retail investment buying, the likes of which has never been seen, institutional silver buying via the ETFs has unleashed a force never even contemplated in 1980. In less than 2 years, more than 200 million ounces of silver have been bought by three new silver ETFs. As institutional investors, and others, come to learn the real silver story, investment buying can be expected to continue and intensify.
5. The main issue is the subject of concentration, which is defined as a large and dominating position held by a few traders.
But because there is no concentrated long position today in COMEX silver futures, only an historic concentrated short position, the insider midstream rule changes won’t work as they did in 1980. There is no big speculative silver "villain" whose legs can be kicked out from under him.
6. The emergence and existence of numerous silver pool, unallocated and certificate accounts currently, didn’t exist in 1980. While there have always been cases throughout history where fraud and deception have occurred, the widespread practice of selling unbacked silver investment accounts is a phenomenon that developed after 1980. As I have previously written, my estimate of the cumulative total amount of the non-existent silver represented in these accounts is more than two billion ounces.
7. In 1980, the major precious metals (gold, silver, platinum and palladium) made historic highs. Today, all but silver have exceeded those highs. In addition, all industrial metals have recently exceeded their historical price highs by very wide margins. The same can be said of most major energy and agricultural commodities. Only silver is far below its historic price highs.
As a result, silver is cheap, relative to almost every other commodity. Relative cheapness is the first analytical test for a long-term value investor. If a prospective asset can’t be called cheap on a relative basis, a true value investor won’t be interested in that asset. All the other attributes that may concern an asset don’t matter a whit, if that asset isn’t cheap. Silver wasn’t cheap in 1980. Today, it’s the cheapest asset around.
In 1980, there was more than 3 billion ounces of gold above ground, compared to almost 4 billion ounces of silver. But 28 years of mine production and the lack of destruction via industrial consumption added almost 2 billion ounces of gold to above ground supplies, while the deficit in silver drew down available above ground silver stocks to perhaps one billion.
Over the next 28 years, gold should add another two billion more ounces minimum to above ground supplies, while it appears impossible for silver to add even one single ounce. In fact, based upon expected future demand, it’s likely that silvers above ground inventories will decline. For all practical purposes we are close to full depletion currently.
On a per capita basis, the comparison between gold and silver is stark. In dollar terms, there is approximately $700 worth of gold above ground for every man, woman and child in the world. There is $2.70 worth of silver per person. You decide for yourself how many investors are aware of this and which item has the best chance for dramatic upward revaluation.
The price has gone up almost four times and yet the bullish factors haven’t changed very much. It strikes me as odd that the broad array of facts and comparisons still suggest that silver is extremely undervalued and capable of a price jolt to the upside that will shock many. There may come a day when that can no longer be said, but that’s not the case today.
Zdroj: SilverSeek.com
02.05.2008
