STRIEBRO – stále podhodnotené
Z dlhodobého pohľadu je súčasná cena striebra pravdepodobne ešte stále veľmi nízka. V určitom čase sa musí prejaviť reálny nedostatok tohto kovu, čo sa odrazí v raketovom náraste ceny.
STILL UNDERPRICED
The doubling and tripling in the price of silver over the past few years hasn’t caused it to become over-valued, based on current fundamentals and circumstances. Although silver has appreciated as much as any precious metal, it has greatly lagged the price performance of the base metals. The GFMS base metals index is up almost 5-fold over the past five years, almost doubling silver’s price performance. This suggests silver is still undervalued.
Industrial demand for base metals is determined by the level of world economic activity. It’s impossible for there to be strong world demand for just one base metal and not for all the others. Nor could there be demand for base metals and not an industrial metal like silver. If the world is demanding more zinc and copper and lead, it is also demanding, and consuming, more silver.
The price peaks for base metals were made under shortage conditions. This included delayed deliveries and the existence of backwardization, where near term spot supplies commanded notable premiums to more deferred delivery. We’ve even experienced contract delivery defaults (in LME nickel). All this presages the coming shortage in silver. I predict that, at some point, silver will enter a true shortage condition because of strong industrial demand.
Zdroj: goldseek.com
19.02.2008
