STRIEBRO – v prípade, ak by...
Ak by sa len 1% z US národného likvidného bohatstva investovalo do drahých kovov, tak cena zlata by asi prekročila $3000/oz a striebra $150/oz.
Silver investment demand may only be about 50 million ounces per year, while silver recycling probably stands at about 200 million ounces.
So, with so little silver available for investment, silver is easily set to outpace gold, and exceed the historic 15 to 1 ration by the time there is any public excitement about the precious metals.
By the time even 1% of the nation's $13 trillion in liquid wealth tries to buy gold and silver within a year, the price of gold will probably exceed $3000/oz., and the price of silver would probably exceed $150/oz.
Let me show again how small the silver market really is. The annual production is about 650 million ounces, with recycling about 200 million, and other silver sold about 50 million ounces. That's a total of about 900 million physical ounces of "fresh" silver entering the market, in a year. That is balanced by about 900 million ounces of consumption, which is balanced by about 45% demand in electronics, about 30% demand in jewelry, and about 20% demand in photography. About 5% is investment demand.
Oh, I suppose more silver than that actually trades each year, as some investors sell silver to other investors, but that's the total net flows.
But if new investors enter the market, they will have to displace that 900 million ounce annual flow (which can only be done at higher prices), and there is little silver left for any new significant monetary demand, that will surely be coming in the near future now that inflation is picking up.
Another way of looking at the 900 million ounces of silver per year, is that it's about 2.5 million ounces per day. That's not much in the way of finance. And since only 5% of that is purchased, net, by investors right now, which is only 125,000 ounces of silver per day, in the entire nation, purchased by investors. That's a tight market. Set to explode in price.
All of this is literally guaranteed to make a few certain wise people, such as you, very rich.
As silver moves from $16/oz. to $408/oz., which is literally guaranteed by historical ratios and historical inflation measures, and insured by the silver scarcity, many people will make well over 2500% (as denominated in dollars) on their silver investment.
Over what time frame? Who can say? I expect annual returns to average about 50% until that final goal is reached.
As always, don't keep your silver with anyone who says they want to hold it for you. Get the scarce physical stuff. All the major brokerage houses and big banks practice "fractional reserve silver holding" for all their clients, and you are not guaranteed anything in the event that they go bankrupt.
Zdroj: goldseek.com
11.01.2008
