STRIEBRO - zhodnotenie stále reálne
Výraznejšie zhodnotenie ceny striebra a nezávislý pohyb od výkonu zlata je stále reálnejšie.
Silver largely mirrors the movement of the gold price, but in reality, the silver market and the gold market are very, very different. The primary use for gold is as an investment or as an ornament. The markets for silver are different in that the primary uses for silver are industrial. So in the gold market, virtually every ounce of gold that has been produced by mankind is available at the surface and could be brought back onto the market. In silver, it’s very different.
Over the past two decades we have seen the enormous stock of silver that was built up over thousands of years being used up in industrial applications, so it is no longer available.
Isn’t there a fair amount of silver recycling going on?
The biggest component in silver recycling is in photography, and to a large extent, photography is a closed loop. The chemicals used are recovered in the developing process and go back into making new film and new other components as well. But a lot of products – mirrors, for example, and thousands of electronic products– employ very small amounts of silver in each application. And that silver is lost to the world forever.
Could it be argued that silver would appreciate more because there’s a bigger gap between supply and demand?
The demand for silver is increasing steadily as more and more applications are coming about, and a lot of these applications are in high-tech situations and high-value products where the value of the silver is insignificant compared to the value of the finished product. The flip side of it, though, is that there’s a lot more silver to be mined and silver coming out of mines is increasing. It’s coming out at a pace that moderates the upward movement in the silver price. I believe that will continue.
It is entirely possible that we could see a very substantial short-term spike in the silver market, but there is enough silver in mines that it will moderate the upward movement of the silver market in the longer-term context.
Do you see something that would cause decoupling at some point?
It’s entirely possible at some point – whether it’s a week from now, next month, or a number of years. But at some point the above-ground stocks of silver are likely to run out. For most of the last two decades, in fact fully two decades, the amount of silver consumed in industrial applications plus investment demand have exceeded the mine supply. So above-ground silver has been run down steadily over the last two decades.
There’s a lot of debate about how much silver might still remain at surface. We don’t know, but at some point we’re going to hit the wall on the amount of silver available on surface. There’s going to be a short-term spike, but there’s also a lot of activity within the mining sector, especially the junior sector, toward an increase in production. As the silver price moves up, there will be more and more activity to bring old silver mines back into production and develop new silver mines.
Článok: www.commodityonline.com/news/topstory/Demand-supply-fundamentals-will-drive-gold-10401-3.html
24.07.2008
