URÁN – bude rast ceny pokračovať?

Podľa experta na jadrovú problematiku Dr. Richa by sa v nasledujúcom období býči trh s uránom mal stabilizovtať event. mierne oslabiť.

Will the Uranium Bull Continue Running?

How does this bull market compare with the previous ones? “There are three things that have changed,” Dr. Rich told us. “One is the pretty strong expectation of new nuclear plant orders, and the fact that the U.S. utilities that are anticipating making new nuclear plant orders have already been purchasing material for first core. Demand has been stronger than expected from people who will be end users of it (material). In the nearer to mid-term, there’s been an unexpectedly large amount of buying by both investors and by producers. They have either had bad luck with their operations in terms of getting out the expected uranium, or have had accidents.”


What started all this? “Cameco, ERA, Olympic Dam and Rossing were down for the first quarter 2003. There was a lot of stuff that was happening that brought the major producers into the market for millions of pounds a year, when before they were offering buyers free options for additional stuff,” Dr. Rich pointed out. “We went very quickly from an oversupply situation to a shortage. Producers were using up inventories and/or having to go to the market for material. I know that personally because I was involved in acquiring uranium for one of the major producers.”


Is this climate going to continue or lessen? “It should lessen,” Rich told us, “but that would be dependent upon there not being any more serious incidents. It would either delay a new producer like Cigar or impede a current major producer.”


What is on the minds of the utilities? “One big issue that I think overhangs the market, too, is: What’s the future of Olympic Dam?” he pointed out. “They were soliciting for 15-year contracts to underwrite at least a portion of the expansion.” Can this become a problem? “Well, I hear them out marketing – I hear from the utilities, and I know the BHP Billiton marketers, so I hear from both that there is activity,” he said. “But if you look at the BHP Billiton quarterly reports, when you look at new projects or developments, or try to find out anything about Olympic Dam, there’s nothing said. They give uranium really minor play as an odd sort of metal that they have to produce. Admittedly, uranium is only a few percent of their gross sales revenues, so maybe it’s a wart on the elephant’s back.”


So where is the price heading?

“You are not going to see prices continue to go up the way they have been going up, because they are already well above the level required to produce more than enough uranium to satisfy expected demand,” Dr. Rich explained. “I think you’ll see a flattening, if not a decline. I don’t think that’s going to happen until the wind goes out of the investors’ sails and producer buying ceases.”


It’s not just speculative buying then? “It’s both,” he responded. “Sometimes, it’s the utility looking to just round out their inventory, but more often than not, it’s producers or investors They either need material to deliver under legacy contracts, so they are buying and reselling at a loss, or else it’s investors who still see further upside.


Is Dr. Rich still bullish?

“If I leaned my opinion to one side or the other, I would lean to the bear side,” he told us. “But what does the bear mean? In this market, it just means a weakening or a downturn or a flattening. I don’t think you’ll ever see the sort of crash that’s going to send this back to US$20 to $30 prices again.”


How will utilities react to any significant downturn in the uranium price? “You are going to panic the market, and it’s going to pop back up,” he quickly pointed out. “The minute buyers see things go down, they are going to flock back into the market, and say, ‘Okay, we knew this was going to happen. Now, we buy.’ The utility consumers will come back into the market like lemmings, and buy up anything available. The next thing you know, there’s another spike.”


Source: BestInd

14.04.2007

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