URÁN – tanec sa ešte neskončil
Hoci korekcia je ešte v procese, dno sa pri USD 68-70 už asi vyformovalo. Následne sa bude očakávať opätovný vzostup.
The uranium price crashed over the summer of 2007, bottoming at $75 per pound in September. It rallied over the winter to $93, before dropping again. Although the spot price seems to be stabilizing at $71, some uranium producers are still down over 70%. Many investors who were so bullish on the sector when the market made continual new highs are now distrusting the sustainability of the market at this lower level. The current sentiment is extremely negative, which is very exciting to a contrarian like myself.
After the fierce decline in 2007 and the smaller selloff this year, I am certain that uranium is forming a bottom here. The potential increases in supply have already been priced into the market, while many risks to production are being discounted. The current lull in the market has allowed the spot price to drift lower. Uranium only needs a buyer to step in to turn the trend around.
Despite the despair in the market, the uranium bull is far from over. There are five major reasons why uranium will continue to appreciate in price:
1. The developing world will demand more energy.
2. Peak oil is pushing the world to look for alternatives to petroleum.
3. Environmental pressures are making nuclear power more attractive.
4. Uranium is still a very cheap fuel.
5. Supply is not easy to increase.
Demand from the developing world for power is increasing dramatically, and these newly rich countries are seeking the energy security that nuclear power can bring. More industrialized nations desire the decrease in carbon emissions from switching from coal to nuclear plants. At the same time, uranium supply is constricted by fears of environmental impacts and terrorism, as well as the shortage of qualified personnel.
The extreme negative sentiment makes this a great time to check out the uranium sector. The other yellow metal still has room to move to the upside. As fossil fuels become more scarce and expensive, alternatives like nuclear power become much more attractive. Even at $71 per pound, uranium is still very cheap. A dose of uranium may be the power your portfolio needs to really shine.
Zdroj: UraniumSeek.com
25.04.2008
