URÁN – investičná stratégia
Pozerajúc sa zopár rokov dozadu, tak pri cene $10-20/lb bol urán lacný a investičné riziká adekvátne. S rastom ceny sa čiastočne zvyšujú aj riziká.
A hoci cena uránu ešte stále môže stúpať, tak pri súčasných $70/lb je treba počítať už aj s možnosťou väčších rizík. Pravdepodobne „Easy Money“ na uráne už nemusia byť až tak „Easy“, hoci nukleárna energie má stále svetlú budúcnosť. Určite bude potrebná dôkladnejšia selekcia a analýza investičných zámerov.
Uranium is a single-use commodity that has great opportunity in an era of energy uncertainty. I believe that nuclear power has a bright future as part of a comprehensive global energy infrastructure. But it is not an energy panacea. It has unique risks and high costs. As the uranium market matures, it will start behaving more like any other commodity, with ups and downs, whipsaws and bubbles. I am convinced that there are still good investment opportunities remaining in uranium mining and processing. But there are also great dangers lurking for overly optimistic investors who have bought into speculative uranium plays that have questionable economics.
The small universe of uranium investment vehicles is both a blessing and a curse. The limited number of uranium related securities makes analysis much easier, but it has become difficult to find the hidden gem among this picked-over sector.
I think that the uranium processing companies represent the best risk/reward ratio at this point in time. Recent contract prices on uranium now exceed enrichment costs and put uranium processors into a better market position. They have underperformed the miners and are still trading at reasonable valuations from a fundamental perspective. There are only two uranium processors that are publicly traded, USEC in the US and AREVA in France.
It is obvious in retrospect that the price of uranium was too low at $10-20/lb to maintain adequate supply and prices had to rise. At $70, the economics is much different and investment risk in the uranium market is now much higher. As we have seen, the uranium market is complex and defies simple "sound-bite" analysis. Many factors, both bullish and bearish can be identified in the uranium market. As price rises, so does risk. Uranium may continue to rise in price, but I think that the easy money is now behind us.
Source: SafeH
09.02.2007
