ZLATO – cena by sa min. mala udržiavať na úrovni $630

V nasledujúcich 18-24 mesiacoch by sa cena zlata mala pohybovať v rozmedzí $630-$700/oz.

The gold price is forecast to remain around or above $630/ounce over the next 18 to 24 months as a majority of market trends are expected to support the price.


The Yellow Book, a twice yearly analysis of global fundamentals and outlook for the gold market, says the risk of sharply lower prices over this period lies mainly in external scenarios of a recovery in the American dollar or a fall in global shares, which remain unlikely.


"On the upside, the $700/ounce price level is still likely to be surpassed during the current forecast period, although consolidation above this level is uncertain," said the fourth issue of the book published by VM Group (formerly known as Virtual Metals) and Fortis Bank.


Supporting the gold market is the expectation that significant new quantities of the metal will not come to the market over the next two years and even over the medium term - despite the fact that numerous juniors are focusing on new production and planned expansions of existing operations.


The rate of jewellery recycling has slowed compared to the flows of metal the industry saw last year. And while there is talk of new producer hedging, any return to hedging in the environment of strong prices is unlikely.


European Central Bank Gold Agreement sales should fall short of the 500 tonne limit for the second consecutive year and jewellery consumption appears to be holding up better than expected at price levels in the range of $660/ounce-$680/ounce.


Jewellery demand is particularly strong in Iran and in other areas of the Middle East as petro-dollars are filtering through to investment jewellery demand.


Net exchange traded fund (ETF) offtake is expected to continue growing while the gold price remains robust, although offtake is not expected to match last year's rate.


Gold is also showing signs of becoming a more mainstream asset in many portfolios around the world. This could result in higher offtake for gold products, but on the negative side it could imply that its correlation with other financial assets has increased.


Weaknesses in the market that partly offset the strengths are a small market surplus over this period, expected to be taken up by investment funds and a reduced rate of continued de-hedging.


But apart from the supply/demand balance in the market, the most important factor to watch over the next two years is the fate of the US dollar. The currency has weakened substantially this year and could fall further as US interest rates are likely to remain low and the housing market remains weak.


Source: MineW

31.05.2007

"In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value."   Alan Greenspan