ZLATO – čo ovplyvní rast ceny

Krátkodobo bude zlato vystavené miernej korekcii, avšak po jej ukončení sa očakáva prekvapujúce zhodnotenie investícií v žltom kove.

Buy low, sell high - it sounds simple enough. Yet the strategy eludes most people.


Drowning in newsprint, they like to buy what’s hot instead – like Tech Stocks in late 1999, oil futures in summer 2005, subprime mortgage-backed bonds in 2006, tulip bulbs in Amsterdam, 1624.


Average behavior won’t beat the average, of course. Only extraordinary actions can deliver extraordinary profits. But still the crowd flocks together, buying what’s hot and selling what’s not.


Herding together feels so much safer – even through the very doors of the slaughterhouse!


“Gold rose 600% in the 1970s and then went down nearly every month for two years,” remarked Jim Rogers in an interview with Financial News earlier this week. “Most people gave up – but then gold went up another 850%.”


Fast forward three decades, and the market’s giving up on gold yet again. Punters in StreetTracks GLD have shed 6% of their holdings from this time last month – the first ever drawdown since it launched in 2005. Gold futures traders cut their net long positions by 16% last week alone.


“That’s what happens in bull markets,” shrugs Rogers, author of Adventure Capitalist and co-founder of the Quantum Fund that gained 4,200% during the inflationary ’70s.


Rogers now foresees a “sizeable near-term correction” in gold, adds the New York Sun, after speculators built up a massive leveraged position, far outweighing the shorts held by commercial gold traders and refineries.


Why this huge overhang? Short-term hot money craves volatility, and that’s just what it gets in gold. The metal has become twice as volatile as US stocks over the last year, says the GFMS consultancy. And taking gold’s temperature, the overhang of speculative longs built up in April recorded a fever.


Gold now needs the hot money to get squeezed out and move on – and it’s being wrung dry in the futures market right now. “The Dollar gold price would seem to have decisively broken down,” said John Dizard in the Financial Times, “with a trend that appears sustainable for the next several months, probably at least to the end of this year.”


Dizard, a long-time gold bull, says the multi-year uptrend will return soon enough, however.


“Within a year, the gold bear market will have run its course,” he goes on. “Mr Bernanke’s expertise in depression avoidance will be called on. He and his counterparts in Europe, Japan and China will be called on to keep the global Ponzi scheme going, because the real economies cannot stand a bust in the financial economies.”


This Ponzi scheme played us all for a sucker – long-term gold bulls included! Just one more Reflation Trade for hedge funds to buy, the metal got confused for a tradable asset to be swapped for ever-more leverage geared up on ever-more cheap credit.


But Ben Bernanke and his friends at the Fed won’t cut US interest rates to defend gold, of course; nor is that what Dizard is saying. They’ll cut interest rates to defend real estate and securities prices instead, fearing a real economic depression caused by collapsing asset valuations. And luckily for anyone yet to buy gold, US housing just feigned a recovery.


This news has helped boost the Dollar and push gold lower. “Home buyers took advantage of the biggest decline in median [home] prices since 1970,” reports Bloomberg.


But the bull market in gold – driven by low to negative real rates of interest on the Dollar – may shoot higher on expectations alone. “In anticipation of that rapid reversal in policy,” says John Dizard, “gold will take off as it hasn’t for a generation.”


Last time around, as Jim Rogers points out, picking the bottom would have returned six times your money by the subsequent top.


Even buying the top of the setback would have given you 270% gains over the following five years – beating inflation, stocks, bonds and cash as real US interest rates sank back below zero.


Source: DailyR

29.05.2007

"In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value."   Alan Greenspan