ZLATO – v tandeme s býčím trhom (2)

Obchodník alebo investor. Každý býčí trh vo počas svojho vývoja dokáže zmiasť väčšinu obchodníkov.

THE GOLDEN BULL

This brings me to the subject of gold. As long term readers know I am firmly convinced that we have entered a long term secular Bull Market in 2001. Moreover, I believe that we are presently still early in what, will be the largest Gold Bull Market ever. Additionally, given the various reasons for the emergence of gold's Bull Market, and the sequence of events that have transpired since its birth, I am confident that the Bull Market will not end for several years, at a minimum.


TRADERS vs INVESTORS

Should you be a trader or a long term Investor? Good question. How many of you that got into the gold market made a ton of money trading it from its $35 low in 1973 to its 1976 high of $200 had any profit left over when it suddenly dropped back to$100 in 1977? I'm willing to bet that not one of you got back in when gold soared passed $200 or passed $300 in 1978 and then just kept on climbing past $500 by the fall of 1979 ? BUT then after watching most of that Bull Market roll by most everyone began jumping in as gold gapped up as much as $30 a day into its ultimate high of $850+ into January 1980... Instead of reaping fortunes most traders ended up in the hole while those few slow dumb and not nearly so greedy investors who just grabbed on to that Golden Bull and hung on became very rich.


All of the same holds true for silver and Uranium markets.


In the case of futures contracts BE CAREFUL a person is not only liable for his committed margin funds, but also for all losses that may occur while he holds the contract.


There is nothing worse than being right and ending up broke.


The case for today is buying and holding gold bullion and gold equities, is primarily that you have the actions of their Bull Markets working in your favor. Yes, you will miss the excitement of trading, but you will also miss the loss of countless hours of sleep! True, you will experience periodic sharp reversals and breathtaking declines but these are buying opportunities and you must recognize them for what they are. WE are indeed in the BIGGEST of all Gold Bull Market and your asset base will inevitably work higher.


What you must remember from this discussion is that we are dealing in a confirmed Long Term Bull Market that over time will bestow great profits upon the true investor. The primary negative of trading this Bull Market is that the typical investor will too often find themselves having taken a small profit and be out of position when the major up-wave develops. And you will not have the discipline to get back in at higher prices.


During the great gold Bull Market of the 1970's, gold suffered a major secondary correction. This lasted from January 1, 1975, until July 4, 1976. During this period gold plummeted from $200 to $103 an ounce. Gold then surged to over $850 an ounce by January 1980. Then when the U.S. government announced that on January 1, 1980, Americans would once again be allowed to own Gold Bullion, all the investors that got in below $500 knew that the ball game was all over. On that fateful day, everyone who believed that a great influx of buying would result from the lifting of sanctions, were sadly mistaken. Rather than exploding higher, the last buyer had already spent his last dollar.. The end result was a harrowing, and trying, twenty year fall in the price.


In this as in every Bull Market there will be at least one such periodic, major price collapse. I can strongly recommend that if you sense that gold is encountering such a period, or that an external shock occurs that might precipitate such an event should occur, do not eliminate your positions. You can buy puts to protect yourself and in the case of a given gold equity, if the fortunes for that company negatively changes it is best to look for a re-placement to switch into but do not reduce your overall positions. Returning to buying and holding during a Bull Market the primary negatives are two-fold. First, is that it is boring! You will miss the excitement of trading! The second is that you risk being shaken out of the market during the inevitable sharp declines. But it is these declines that give you the opportunity to add to your positions.


I am convinced that all but the most sophisticated traders should ride them out. There is a common thread that appears during all Bull Markets. Many new traders are whipsawed out of their trading positions when gold drops sharply below support only to recover to near unchanged. Under these circumstances it can be quite difficult to reenter the trade.


EVERY BULL MARKET DOES WHAT EVER IT HAS TO DO TO MAKE THE MAJORITY OF TRADERS WRONG! Often, as in the case of my earlier discussed silver futures experience, you will not have the courage to again make purchases before gold moves ever higher. This will force you to miss out on the profits that would have accrued if you had remained invested.


All Bull Markets have a tendency to move higher while carrying as few investors with them as possible. Gold Bull Markets are no different! If you allow yourself to be faked out of your position, by trying to be cute and trade the market prior to a major gold advance, it is not gold's fault if you miss the rise, it is yours! Just as in the bull market for stocks all through the 90's; buy the dips and holding on was the way to make the most money. So, just like riding a Brahma Bull, grab hold of your positions and hang on for dear life and make sure that, that Golden Bull does not buck you off


Source: GoldS

03.05.2007

"In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value."   Alan Greenspan