Komoditný super cyklus

We’re in a ‘commodity super-cycle’ according to Jim Rogers and others.

The super-cycle describes periods of unprecedented demand for commodities triggered by the rapid development of a major new industrial power. Once it was Britain’s Industrial Revolution, more recently the industrial expansion of the United States and today, the industrialisation of China. Given the country is home to some 1.3bn souls, it’s a fair bet we’re witnessing the most spectacular commodity ‘super-cycle’ yet.

History tells us when they occur they tend to last for sometime. Rogers estimates the current one will continue to between 2014-2022 - another seven to fifteen years to go. Booming demand and finite supply (where new capacity can take many years to come on stream) means prices should rise and they have. Copper, tin, iron ore and gold among them.

But what of the resources themselves? How much supply is there in a world where the rich nations now compete with an emerging 2.7bn people in the fast growing BRIC economies. Now they want what the rich countries have too.

New Scientist raises this crucial question. How much have we got left? How long can we continue plundering the world’s crust to satisfy our desires for the latest must- have gizmos of 21st century life? Using data from the US Geological Survey and population data from the UN it attempts an estimate on the world’s remaining supply of minerals based on current technology and consumption rates.

This is where it gets interesting... and potentially alarming. Platinum is a vital component in catalytic converters for cars and fuel cells. ‘There is no synthetic alternative’ to it and no demand is satisfied from recycling. If the world’s 500m cars were fitted with fuel cells supply would be exhausted within 15 years with no way of getting further supply.

Another history lesson is that when vital resources get scarce people have a tendency to fight over them. Iraq’s oil might be a case in point in mind for many but a lesser known stat is that the US depends on China for 90% of its “rare earth” metals.

The calculations in the New Scientist’s survey are by its own admission ‘crude’ giving no consideration to improvements in technology and the economics of supply and demand. But the point made by academics is that there’s no reliable ‘earth audit’ of global resource reserves and government is starting to cotton on. Expect an initiative at next month’s OECD meeting.

Source: DailyR

03.06.2007

"In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value."   Alan Greenspan