Drahé kovy – optimizmus v sektore drahých kovov v 2008

Following the stonking 30% rise in 2007, we remain manifestly bullish for gold prices and forecast that the market is set for another bumper year in 2008. Many of the factors that have taken us to record highs are likely to remain in play, but more so.

Specifically, accelerating investment demand of gold ETFs, safe haven buying on ongoing concerns about the stability of the economy but perhaps most importantly, rising inflation. Geopolitical tension may ease with the departure of Bush from the White House and indeed the dollar may have seen the largest part of its decline which could mitigate things.

So often in the shadow of gold, silver has recorded impressive gains over the last four years. As primarily a by-product of base metals mining it remains moderately price inelastic and it can expect rising mine production based upon increases in production of the host metals, primarily copper. Silver's price gains however can be attributed to solid demand side investment and that appetite look set to continue in 2008 as the race between the old world and the emerging economies to corner the world's natural resources intensifies... be it a mine or simply physical metal. The fly in the ointment may be the slowing global economy and, more so than gold, this could signal a more modest increase than in former years.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the world's largest securities firm, increased its gold forecast for 2008 through 2010 because of expectations for a U.S. recession in the second and third quarters and a weaker dollar. The metal will average $915 an ounce this year, compared with an earlier estimate of $800, the bank said in an e-mailed report today. Gold will average $870 next year and $940 in 2010, from earlier forecasts of $852 and $907, the bank said.

22.01.2008

"In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value."   Alan Greenspan