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But even the most oblivious investor can tell which way the wind has been blowing lately. Prices of gold, silver and platinum have soared for more than seven years. Since 2001, gold has risen 248%, from $271 per ounce to $945 on February 22; silver has gained 290%, from $5 per ounce to $18; and platinum has jumped 256%, from $610 per ounce to $2,165. Since January, gold and platinum have regularly been setting new highs, surpassing prices last seen in 1980.

There are explanations aplenty for the boom. The decline of the U.S. dollar, geopolitical uncertainty and the growing demand for bling from residents of increasingly prosperous emerging markets are the obvious culprits. Investors perceive gold and, to a lesser extent, other precious metals to have inherent value against the devaluation of paper money. Gold is bought and sold in dollars, so any decline in the value of the dollar causes the gold prices to rise.

"In this environment, investors have put a very high risk premium on to precious metals," says Jeffrey Christian, managing director of CPM Group, a commodities research firm. "At some point, they will grow less fearsome of the financial, economic and political world around them. At that point, precious metals prices will decline."

That said, Christian says prices will remain high for some time and possibly move higher. But he worries about the large sums of borrowed money used by institutional investors, such as hedge funds, to buy precious metals. If those positions unwind, that could cause a steep decline in prices.

Zdroj: SafeH

27.02.2008

"In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value."   Alan Greenspan