Mineweb Guru predpovedajú cenu zlata

Čitatelia Mineweb predpovedajú v roku 2007 priemernú cenu zlata na úrovni $719 s priemerným maximom $848. Koniec roka ukáže, či odhady GURUs sa zhodovali s prognózami odborníkov LBMA.

At long last I have found the time to correlate the entries for the Mineweb gold price competition, which shows a pretty wide range of predictions from readers. Overall though, the averages of all the estimates would seem to this writer to be eminently reasonable as my own estimates for the year were pretty close to the averages of all readers figures! The full table of entries is published below.


To recap, readers were invited to predict the high, low, year-end and average gold price for the year according to London Bullion Market association daily price fixes, and as one would expect from a diverse range of Mineweb readers there were fairly wide differences of opinion apparent. The Gold price high range was from $648 (already exceeded) up to $1250 an ounce, with an average of $848.


On the low front, almost half Mineweb’s readers took the January 8th morning fix of $608 as their low point for the year – and the overall average low predicted was not far below this at $603 – with variations down to $520. The overall average price for the year from the readers’ estimates was $719 and the year-end figure average for the December 31 afternoon close was $771. Now we can sit back and see who our Gold Price Guru of the year will turn out to be.


It will also be interesting to see how we compare with the expectations of the expert panel which contributed to the London Bullion Market Association’s annual competition. Here the main prize at the year end goes to the ‘expert’ who is nearest to the achieved average price for the year. In general, though, as may be expected with few experts prepared to stick their necks out, the ranges of predictions were much more compact and conservative than those of Mineweb readers. LBMA competition predicted highs ranged from $675 to $850 (average $ 742 – more than $100 below the Mineweb readers); lows from $620 down to $500 (average $566); and average prices from $755 to $580 (average $653).


A year is a long time, and the gold price is unpredictable at the best of times, but to this observer it would seem that good fundamentals would suggest that the 2007 gold price eventualities will be closer to the Mineweb reader averages than to those of the LBMA panel of experts.


Source: Mineweb

19.02.2007

"In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value."   Alan Greenspan