Drahé kovy – prebiehajúca korekcia

PMs sa stále nachádzajú v štádiu korekcie, ktorá môže potrvať do letných mesiacov. Mnohé krajiny už diverzifikujú peňažné prostriedky do strategických aktív.

We are in a primary bull-market which is currently undergoing a healthy medium-term correction - everything else is "noise". Such corrections are normal and serve the purpose of shaking out the latecomers and the "weak hands". More importantly, such periods of weakness give us the ideal opportunity to increase our positions. I am not sure about you, but I always prefer to buy assets when the sentiment is negative and there is widespread fear amongst the investing public. Furthermore, I never purchase anything after a big rally. This is the reason why despite the brutal sell-off in commodities over the past several months, our managed accounts have held up reasonably well.


I have no doubt in my mind that both gold and silver will appreciate considerably over the coming years. Here are the reasons why:


• Terminally-ill US Dollar

• Rampant monetary inflation = debasement of currencies

• Record-high US trade and current-account deficits

• Major top in the US bond-market and rising interest-rates (which will hurt housing)

• Sky-high debt levels in developed nations; only option is to inflate the currencies

• Rising geo-political tensions and increasing resource wars

• A major bull-market in crude oil due to rising demand and tight supplies

• Gold and silver are inexpensive in real-terms (inflation-adjusted basis)

• Extremely cheap in comparison to financial assets (stocks and bonds)

I am of the opinion that both gold and silver are likely to decline into the summer months before embarking on a huge rally towards the end of this year. This action will shake out more weak hands and set the stage for a big advance.


However, if we do get a major conflict in Iran, you will be really glad that you own precious metals. At present, Asian central banks hold a miniscule 1.5% of their total reserves in gold. You can imagine what will happen to the price of gold when Asian countries start diversifying into the yellow metal. Recently, China announced that it plans to invest US$200 billion of its US$ 1 trillion reserves in strategic assets. So, this move out of "paper" is already underway.


Since the commencement of this bull-market, precious metals mining shares have provided a leverage of 300% compared to physical bullion. However, over the past few months, physical bullion has outperformed the mining shares. These changes in relative strength are normal and I would advise you to utilise any near-term weakness in mining stocks and invest heavily.


Source: SafeH

24.04.2007

"In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value."   Alan Greenspan