Môže mať platina lepší výkon ako zlato?

Najväčšia kríza v ponuke platiny sa očakáva v rokoch 2009-2011. Na akú cenovú úroveň dovtedy vystúpi, o tom to môžeme (pri dnešných asi $1700/oz) len polemizovať.

The outlook for commodities generally is good but platinum group metals (pgm) should do better than gold over the next few years. That's according to several presentations given at the Mining Indaba being held in Cape Town.


Martin Murenbeeld, chief economist for DundeeWealth Economics, told delegates that commodities had become a new class of investment and “there is huge room to grow in that asset class.”


“What you are seeing is that some of money is being used by the different countries to secure their sources of commodity supply,” he said.


Paul Walker, CEO of UK-based metals consultancy GFMS, said that, while GFMS was bullish on gold’s prospects this year, the firm was concerned about the downside risk for the metal looking 12 to 18 months out.

Platina

Walker said GFMS’s latest prediction on the gold price was for it to average $866/oz and it could go as high as $1,001 in what he said could be a “very choppy market.”


Said Walker: “We are in a genuine bull rally in gold across the board in various currencies. I believe gold is dancing to its own tune and the rise in the price is not just a function of weakness in the US dollar."


But he highlighted the negative impact that high gold prices were having on jewellery demand as the reason that GFMS was now “starting to detect the end of the bull cycle in gold."


Walker said investment demand was sufficient “at the moment” to compensate for lost demand for gold from fabrication, but he pointed out that, for the first time in 15 years, new mine gold supply was greater than “net” demand for the metal.


The bet is that Walker will shave his head if gold gets through $1200/oz by the end of this year.


By contrast, the risks for the platinum price are to the upside according to Stephen Forrest, MD of consulting firm SFA Oxford.


Forrest predicted a long term price scenario for platinum ranging between $1,350 and $1,550 because of forecast shortfalls in platinum supply which would be at their worst between 2009 and 2011.


The main reason for the likely shortfalls was supply problems from the South African mines because of safety issues and Eskom’s power crisis.


Zdroj: commodityonline.com

06.02.2008

"In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value."   Alan Greenspan

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