NBF revidovala cenu zlata a striebra pre rok 2007

Toronto's National Bank Financial (NBF) metals analysts Wednesday revised their average gold price forecasts upward from $650/oz to $675/oz in 2007 and from $625/oz to $675/oz in 2008, while adjusting the silver price to reflect a 50:1 ratio with the gold price.

New commodity silver price forecasts also were adjusted higher from $13/oz to $13.50/oz this year and from $12.50/oz to $13.50/oz in 2008. The NBF long-term commodity forecasts were revised from $500/oz to $525/oz for gold, while silver was adjusted from $10/oz to $10.50/oz.

In a revised gold price forecast published Wednesday, NBF metals analyst Tanya Jakusconek and associates Joanne van Balegooie and Farooq Hamed said their outlook "is predicated on a positive mix of historic price drivers and supportive gold market fundamentals."

Their outlook for the commodity is based on a weighting of four key elements listed in order of the impact on the gold price:

1) A continued decline in the U.S. will provide the main direction for bullion in 2007. This is based on a belief that the dollar will continue to be under pressure on soft economic data, its continuing struggle with twin deficits and continued rate hikes at the European Central Bank versus U.S. Federal Reserves rates easing in the third quarter.

2) Gold and oil prices show a strong correlation and continue to move in tandem this year. "Investors continue to be concerned about high energy prices and inflationary pressures and part of the diversification into gold is seen as hedging against this perceived threat," according to the analysts, who assigned a 20% weighting to oil as the secondary driver to the gold price.

3) Low Real Interest Rates: "...We expect real rates, which have historically been a tertiary drive of gold prices to decline further into 2007 and 2008." NBF assigned a 20% rating to real rates as the tertiary driver of the gold price.

4) Commodity Rally: "Gold is flourishing as part of a broad-based commodity rally in other metals to meet growing Chinese and other industrial demand and we have assigned a 10% weighting to our expectation for continued strong copper and zinc prices (though has come off of recent highs)."

In their analysis, NBF said the current gold price is being supported by a "relatively flattish mine output profile over the next several years;" continued dehedging among the global gold producers albeit at a slower rate than last year; potential demand from governments looking to bring their central bank gold reserves more in line with the world average; and continued record high investment demand "as gold is being viewed by hedge funds as an asset to currency."

Source: MineW

27.04.2007

"In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value."   Alan Greenspan