PLATINA – pozitívne vyhliadky pre 2008

We believe this high will be reached in the next 5 to 8 years in this new supply/demand driven secular bull market.

Platinum – a rare and 'strategic' metal

Platinum is the rarest of all precious metals. Total annual world production is about 7 million ounces, a mere 10% of the world's annual gold production of 76 million ounces. It is so rare that the US government considers it a "strategic metal" and banned its ownership and use in World War II for non-military purposes.

Growing industrial demand

While platinum production is only some 7 million ounces, demand has soared from about 2.6 million ounces in 1975 to more than 7 million ounces today, and it looks set to keep on growing through 2010, thereby creating a demand imbalance.

Growing investment demand

In recent years investment demand for platinum has also been increasing. There has been significant buying of platinum by investment funds in the last few years, and private investors, mutual funds and pension funds have all been increasing their commodities exposure as well through both futures and ETFs.

Limited sources of supply

Total global platinum production only represents about 6% of global gold production and less than 1% of global silver production. In addition to platinum being limited in supply, it is very energy and capital intensive, with 8-10 tons of ore required to obtain one pure ounce of platinum.

Platinum price performance

So how has platinum performed in recent years? It is one of the top performing asset classes and has climbed from $350 in January 2000 to nearly $1,600 recently, a rise of some 350%.

Gold is up by more than 230% ($270 to over $900) and silver is up by 240% ($4.70 to over $16) over the same 8 year period.

While these returns are significant and may lead investors to fear that the best gains have passed, it must be remembered that other commodities such as the grains, soft commodities and base metals have risen by far more than platinum.

Many commodities are up between 5 and 13 fold. Platinum is only up some 350%. If platinum were to catch up with these other less rare and less precious metals, it would have to increase in value significantly. It is important to continue to make the trend your friend with all the precious metals. Volatility will increase and there will be sharp sell-offs but the medium and long term fundamentals of all the precious metals remain more than sound especially in the light of the unprecedented and deteriorating global credit, systemic and monetary crisis.

While platinum may be overbought in the short term, the fundamentals of platinum for 2008 point towards another deficit year in the platinum market and a continuing rise in prices seems more than likely. Platinum started 2008 at $1530 per ounce and should platinum return 30% in 2008 then it will reach the psychological level of $2,000 per ounce.

Zdroj: goldseek.com

23.01.2008

"In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value."   Alan Greenspan