Prečo cena drahých kovov porastie

V súčasnosti sú drahé kovy aj pre najbohatšie rodiny vo svete akýmsi útočiskom pred rastúcou infláciou a „udržiavateľom“ hodnoty ich bohatstva. Naviac diverzifiácia aspoň malej časti z investičných $187 biliónov by určite mala značný dopad na cenu PMs.

This rise in prices and its implications are widely misunderstood. Many investors believe that gold is merely a commodity like copper or lead, with limited industrial uses. As one investment manager said, "I have no use for gold. You can't eat it and you can't put it in your gas tank."


Often price increases are attributed to jewellery demand from China and India. While this is an important demand factor, in South East Asia jewellery is not regarded as just an adornment, as in western countries. It is held as a monetary asset that is used to preserve wealth from generation to generation.


Gold and silver have been used as money for over 3,000 years, and platinum for several hundred years. Today, they are still used by the world's richest families as a store of wealth and an inflation hedge. Most central banks hold gold as part of their currency reserves. Although there is considerable controversy over central banks' leasing of gold, they report current gold holdings of about 928 million ounces, down just 160 million ounces from the 1980 peak of 1,080 million ounces. While western central banks have reduced their holdings and may have leased substantial quantities of their bullion holdings, developing countries have been adding to their reserves. Today, a number of central banks have openly discussed diversifying out of US dollars and increasing their gold holdings.

Gold

The fact that most banks and brokerages trade gold at their currency desks rather than their commodities desks also attests to gold's monetary role. The net daily turnover of about $15 billion in physical bullion by members of the London Bullion Marketing Association also confirms gold's current monetary role. Although the daily volume is unpublished, it is estimated at $100 billion to $150 billion per day.


If we understand gold's monetary role, what does its rising price indicate?


Analysis of economic statistics can lead to a variety of conclusions. Some economists say the global economy is headed for a recession, while others believe the worst is over and 2008 will be a good year for financial assets. However, a rising gold price is essentially a vote of non-confidence in paper currencies and a leading indicator of future inflation.


Many global investors are concerned about counterparty risk problems, and what may turn out to be the worst financial crisis the credit markets have ever seen. In addition, the explosive growth in derivatives, new highs in the oil price, unsustainable US consumer debt, and a possible unwinding of the yen carry trade provide plenty to be concerned about.


Money supply has increased by:

a. 42% in Russia

b. 21% in India

c. 18% in China

d. 12% in UK

e. 8% in Canada


Increases in money supply will likely accelerate, since central banks have announced they are prepared to provide liquidity in unlimited amounts in order to maintain bank solvency and prevent a systemic financial crisis. The inflationary implications of this policy should be obvious.


As the prices of gold, silver and platinum continue to rise, mainstream investors and institutions alike will begin to reallocate a portion of their resources, which exceed $187 trillion, to precious metals. Since aboveground supplies of precious metals represent less than $4 trillion in total, and only $600 billion in privately held gold bullion, substantially higher price are indicated. If global investors decide to allocate even a modest 10% of their assets to gold, $18 trillion in financial assets will attempt to move into this tiny $4-trillion market and higher prices will be the inevitable result.


When that reallocation begins, gold at $1,100 per ounce will look like a bargain


Zdroj: commodityonline.com

19.01.2008

"In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value."   Alan Greenspan

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