Scotiabank predpovedá v roku 2007 lepšiu výkonnosť striebra než zlata

Podľa predpovedí kanadskej banky Scotiabank, zlato by tohto roku malo dosiahnuť úrovne $676/oz, avšak striebro, vzhľadom na neklesajúci dopyt až $20/oz.

Okrem priemyselného dopytu po striebre bude na cenu mať vplyv aj ETF (založený v minulom roku), ktorý zároveň bol jedeným z hnacích kolies ceny striebra v poslednom období.

Canada’s Scotiabank’s bullion division ScotiaMocatta latest monthly precious metals analysis anticipates that gold may challenge $676/oz prices this year, while calls for silver to reach $20/oz “do not seem too farfetched.”

The pace of producer de-hedging is likely to slow this year as the size of the global hedge book has now shrunk. ScotiaMoccata noted that “early forecasts are expected some 98 tonnes to be de-hedged in H1 07, but this may turn out to be a conservative estimate. This is especially so if there is further consolidation in the industry.”

“Gold has launched itself on another up leg and the weight of investment money seems to be a primary reason behind the move, although numerous other factors also support a firmer price,” according to ScotiaMocatta’s analysis. “The big picture outlook for gold is still positive, but a close eye needs to be kept on the dollar. Overall look for gold to make upside progress with $676/oz now in focus.”

ScotiaMocatta also suggested that, as the institutional investment trend to spread risk grows, “Investment demand for gold is expected to increase. Much of this new demand is fairly price inelastic as investors are in for the long term and want gold in their portfolios for diversification. As such gold should benefit as this investment trend spreads throughout the industry from hedge funds to pension funds and also geographically.

“Japan’s vast financial institutions are still thought be pondering on whether to diversify into commodities,” ScotiaMocatta noted. “As such we feel that the weight of money could continue to be a major driving force for gold for a considerable time.”

Their analysis asserted that “robust global growth should prompt good demand for jewelry and keep industrial demand healthy.”

ScotiaMocatta’s analysis found that silver is “trending higher” and benefiting from a broader industrial base. “Earlier expectations that industrial demand would fall due to slower economic growth may prove premature as generally the economic climate favors a ‘strong for longer’ outlook.”

However, with strong investment demand and the on-going growth of the ETF, “silver supply may struggle to satisfy demand, in which case prices are likely to move into a higher trading range,” ScotiaMocatta said. “Expect higher prices, but with it more volatility.”

Although new mine silver production is coming on stream as more base metals mines are commissioned, ScotiaMocatta forecast that mine output is expected to increase by only 2% or just over 400 tonnes this year. “However with the silver ETF now holding 3,642 tonnes and increasing at an average of 330 tonnes a month, there is a distinct possibility that investment demand start competing for the same metal; in which case silver prices may well move into a new higher trading range.”

Silver is benefiting from a broader industrial base. With silver investment demand set to remand strong and the ETF expected to show ongoing growth, silver supply may struggle to satisfy demand,” according to ScotiaMocatta.

Nevertheless, their analysis cautioned that while higher silver prices could lead to liquidation selling and dishoarding “that could create a volatile trading pattern. If rallies above $15/oz fail to gain hold then disappointed liquidation selling may well take prices back to trade around the $12/oz level.”

Source: MineWeb

12.02.2007

"In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value."   Alan Greenspan