ZLATO - $1200 a striebro $25 v 2008

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While gold and silver are overbought in the short term and may experience an intermediate top soon, markets can stay overvalued for long periods. John Maynard Keynes pointed out: "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." This was the case in the 1970's. Interestingly Warren Buffett told CNBC overnight that the U.S. was in recession and “it is nothing like 1973, 1974 yet”. Clearly he believes that stagflation is a real possibility.


It seems that many in the financial markets and even in the precious metal markets do not fully understand the ramifications of a real short squeeze in the precious metals. A massive short squeeze could propel gold and especially silver to far higher levels in the coming weeks.


As always best to focus on the medium to long term and the continuing strong fundamentals with uncertainty in equity and property markets, oil at over $100 a barrel, the dollar under continuing pressure and the credit crunch deepening. These will likely result in any correction in gold being of a short duration prior to challenging the inflation adjusted high of some $2,400 per ounce in the coming years.


Investors nervous of buying near a top should adopt a dollar cost averaging approach and maybe buy 33% or 50% of their bullion allocation now and the balance in the coming weeks. This ensures not buying near an intermediate top and ensures getting an average intermediate price.


We continue to be confident that our 2008 predictions of $1,200 in gold and $25 in silver remain more than likely.


Zdroj: Goldseek.com

06.03.2008

"In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value."   Alan Greenspan

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