ZLATO – ako vysoko môže vystúpiť?

Calls for the price of gold vary, anywhere from $1,000 to $10,000 or even to $100,000. There is one true fundamental problem with all calls for the price of gold - they all ignore the future inflation environment.

For example, if a genuine Great-Depression-like deflation grips the U.S. economy, then $1,500 for the top of the gold bull market might be too high. On the other hand, if a long 1970 stagflation is in the cards, then $5,000 is too low. The point is that a call for the price of gold without a clear assumption for the macroeconomic environment is a wild and misleading shot in the dark.

Curiously, once gold shot up to $850, gold analysts did not waste time to update higher their long-term projections for the price of gold. My feeling based on a dozen authors is that the new consensus range for the top is in the $2,000-3,000. I beg to disagree. Their math is simple, but poor. Let me explain.

The trick is that in next four or five years, price inflation and money supply may rise by another 50-100%, so by then the target moves higher, say to the $4,000-5,000 range. Then you need another 2-3-4 years to reach the target. The problem is that the target is moving; it moves approximately with the rate of inflation.

To summarize, I believe that both deflation and very strong inflation are not very likely. The likely outcome will be stagflation. Then a $10,000 price of gold is consistent with this view. This is my price target for 2015-2020. My advice is simple - stay with gold and you will be fine in the long run.

Zdroj: GoldE

10.03.2008

"In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value."   Alan Greenspan