ZLATO – CBs pod tlakom k odpredaju zlata

CBs môžu v rámci zmluvy každoročne odpredať maximálne 500 ton zlata, aby redukovali deficit a splatili dlhy.

European central banks may sell the maximum agreed limit of 500 tons of gold annually in the next two years as pressure mounts to pay off public debts and cut deficits, analysts say.

Unlike last year’s gold sales of just 395.80 tons, the banks are likely to sell 500 tons this year and meet the target in the last two years of the five-year Central Bank Gold Agreement (CBGA) that ends in September 2009.

According to industry estimates, the banks have sold between 360 and 400 tons in the third year ending on Sept. 26, with Spain selling 148 tons to reinvest in higher-yielding bonds and France selling another 90.5 tons.

Gold traditionally is seen as a safe-haven asset, but yields zero or very low returns against other financial instruments.

“We expect the full, or very close to the full, 500 tons ceiling permitted under the agreement to be completed by the end of this year,” analyst John Reade at UBS Investment Bank said.

“I guess there could be other sellers...but it would be quite difficult to make the maths work without Italy or Germany selling or without France accelerating their sales over and above what they said they would do.”

Italy, the world’s fifth largest holder of official gold with 2,452 tons, is the biggest public debt in Europe in absolute terms. Its parliament recently approved a motion asking the government to try to use gold reserves to cut debt. Switzerland said it would sell 250 tons by September 2009 and use the money to increase its foreign exchange reserves.

“Italy has got the world’s third-biggest debt and for years they have been of the opinion that gold was sacrosanct,” said Peter Hillyard, head of metals sales at ANZ Investment Bank.

“But they are now saying: ‘If we have got all this debt we can perhaps pay it off by selling gold.”

The European central banks are likely to sign another pact after the end of the current agreement in 2009, analysts said.

“There will be an agreement for sure. I think there will be a bigger amount of gold to be sold and you may find some new banks coming in or some banks dropping out,” Hillyard said.

The pact was signed eight years ago to stabilize gold that was languishing below $300, partly due to frequent central bank sales. The current pact, agreed in 2004, raised the sales limit over five years to 2,500 tons from 2,000 tons.

Source: AraN


"In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value."   Alan Greenspan