ZLATO – dosiahnutie $850 za dverami

Analytici sa zhodujú, že úroveň $850 bude prekonaná veľmi skoro. Na budúci rok môže cena zlata dosiahnuť až $1000-$1200/oz.

It has been described as a perfect storm. The U.S. dollar is hitting new lows against a basket of currencies, the oil price is rapidly approaching the $100 mark and reports warn that falling gold production could cause a “quantum upward change” in the price. Little doubt remains that gold will break its all-time high of $850 very soon, but few can say with confidence what will happen next.

Gold last touched $850 an ounce at the London PM fix on January 21 1980, just after the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and the seizure of U.S. hostages in Iran. Inflation was then running in double digits in most western economies, according to sources.

This year, although political concerns are apparent with tensions increasing in the Middle East, they remain secondary to a plummeting dollar and growing unease about the U.S. economy.


Gold prices have gained more than 6% in November, 13% since October and 23% since August. So far this year, gold is averaging about $678, dwarfing last year’s average of $603. Analysts are in agreement that gold is on the verge of breaking the all-time high very soon.

“I think 1980's $850 high will be taken out, if not this week then early next,” Philip Klapwijik, chairman of GFMS, told Resource Investor.

However, analysts remain up in the air over what to expect next in the gold market. Both Klapwijik and Norman said gold’s next direction will be a bit harder to predict with so much speculative money changing hands.

Klapwijik said the news that gold has broken all-time highs could “potentially trigger a round of fresh investment from new buyers,” but “a lot of existing holders will see this as a prudent level to take profits.”

He said he favours the correction scenario on balance, which could pull the price back “quite sharply,” but noted that gold’s “momentum to-date has been pretty impressive.”

Norman said the market “may correct soon” since some people are sitting on large profits with the year coming to an end. He forecasts some profit taking in 2 to 3 weeks.

However, he said the best months of gold are typically late in the year, and there are many investors waiting on the sidelines to buy the dips. Next year could bring moves of $40 on a regular basis with prices on their way to highs of $1000 or $1200.

“The speed in which gold recovers shows strength in the market,” he said.

Dennis Gartman, editor of the Gartman Letter, is one such buyer, waiting to step back on a $20-$40 break in prices. Can gold trade back to $810-$820 in the near future?

“Of course it can, and when it does the market will be a good deal healthier for having done so,” he said.

Zdroj: www.commodityonline.com


"In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value."   Alan Greenspan